Matchup orbital

TB

3

TB

TB

12-9

Final

Win prob

47/53

AWAY · HOME

PIT

6

PIT

PIT

13-9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TB 3 · PIT 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000200013
PIT100031016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLBGame · Sun, Apr 19Final
TB

TB12-9

TB

@

13-9PIT

PIT

PIT
SeriesPIT wins series 2-1VegasPIT -115

Recap · MLB

ittsburgh Pirates held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FINALFinal
TB
TB12-93
FINAL
PIT
PITWIN13-96

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 17TBTB1@PITPIT5
Apr 18TBTB8@PITPIT7
Apr 19TBTB3@PITPIT6today

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 17TBTB1@PITPIT5
Apr 18TBTB8@PITPIT7
Apr 19TBTB3@PITPIT6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-10551%
PITPIT-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 2 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 5th Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

PIT beat TB 6-3. Feduccia's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

PIT vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

1 lead change

TB3
PIT6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+25pp→ 51% WP

Feduccia · singled to right, Palacios scored and DeLuca scored.

PITBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 76% WP

Gonzales · singled to right, Bart scored, Gonzales to second, Cook to third.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 2-5
+6pp→ 92% WP

Horwitz · homered to right (383 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000200013
PIT10003101—6

Period scoring

TB won 0 · PIT won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
3

Inn 5

Feduccia 2

Reynolds 2

0
1

Inn 6

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Yorke 1

1

Inn 9

Caminero 1

TB
PIT

Game flow · key plays

  1. B5

    Reynolds singled to left, Cook scored and Gonzales scored.

    TB 2·PIT 4

    +11pp

  2. B5

    Gonzales singled to right, Bart scored, Gonzales to second, Cook to third.

    TB 2·PIT 2

    +13pp

  3. B5

    Mangum grounded out to pitcher.

    TB 2·PIT 1

    −6pp

  4. B5

    Cook reached on bunt single to catcher, Bart to third.

    TB 2·PIT 1

    +9pp

  5. B5

    Bart doubled to center.

    TB 2·PIT 1

    +10pp

  6. T5

    Feduccia singled to right, Palacios scored and DeLuca scored.

    TB 2·PIT 1

    −25pp

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

6

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

3

Runs

6

Player box score

TB

TB

12-9

3
C. Simpson

C. Simpson★

LF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Caminero

J. Caminero★

3B

OPS

1.250

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

J. Aranda

J. Aranda★

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz★

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Mullins

C. Mullins★

CF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

R. Palacios

R. Palacios★

2B

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

J. DeLuca

J. DeLuca★

RF

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

H. Feduccia

H. Feduccia★

C

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

2

HR

0

T. Walls

T. Walls★

SS

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

6-32

R

3

RBI

3

HR

1

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan★

SP

IP

4.1

H

8

ER

4

K

5

M. Englert

M. Englert

RP

IP

2.1

H

2

ER

1

K

3

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

IP

1.1

H

2

ER

1

K

1

Team total

IP

8.0

H

12

ER

6

K

9

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TB -105/PIT -115

DraftKings · via ESPN