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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4PIT
TB

TB

11-8

1
5
PIT

PIT

12-8

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
24,198 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL56.2%48.2%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 51.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TB 1 · PIT 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000010001
PIT010002025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -120

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Tampa Bay Rays, 5–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB11-8
1
5
PIT12-8
TB11-8·PIT12-8
TB

TB

11-8

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-33000012
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-33000011
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000001
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010001
SPRINT26.225
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-22000000
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
0-11000000
Team5-3232151026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
5.1822330
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2111001
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
2.0222230
Team8.01155561
PIT

PIT

12-8

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44112112
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
3-55032000
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000012
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-44000001
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
3-44130000
SPRINT25.614
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
3-33031010
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-33210010
SPRINT29.899
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-22000010
Team11-33335115156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
6.0311130
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0100020
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000000
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100110
Team9.0511260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • N. Martinez
    88 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.1 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      22%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.7 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    44 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.5 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      29%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·86.6 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.2 mph·12% whiff
    • ST
      21%·87.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      18%·91.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      69%·99.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      19%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 17TBTB1@PITPIT5today
Apr 18TBTB8@PITPIT7
Apr 19TBTB3@PITPIT6

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Apr 17TBTB1@PITPIT5today
Apr 18TBTB8@PITPIT7
Apr 19TBTB3@PITPIT6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+10050%
PITPIT-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 6th Inning

TBTB
N. Fortes

N. Fortes

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat TB 5-1. Cruz's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

PIT vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 41% WP

Caminero · singled to center, Simpson scored.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 68% WP

Horwitz · singled to right.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+24pp→ 87% WP

Cruz · homered to right center (385 feet), Griffin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000010001
PIT01000202—5

Period scoring

TB won 0 · PIT won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Caminero 1

Cruz 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Lowe 2

0

Inn 9

TB
PIT

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  2. T9

    Mullins fouled out to first.

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  5. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  6. T9

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  7. T9

    Williamson walked.

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

    −0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  13. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ben Williamson

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  14. T9

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  15. T9

    Fraley flied out to center.

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

    +0.9pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  20. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Jake Fraley

    · ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  21. T9

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  22. T9

    Díaz doubled to right.

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

    −0.7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  25. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  26. T9

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  27. T9

    Aranda struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

    +0.6pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·PIT 5

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

5

5

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

6

TB

17

0

HR

1

2

BB

5

6

K

6

10

LOB

19

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB +100/PIT -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    303
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 97
    131
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    231
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 96
    70
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PIT vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    53.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.