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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

10-8

4
3
BAL

BAL

9-8

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
13,524 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.3%56.3%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 4 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000400004
BAL0110000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -171

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI10-8
4
3
BAL9-8
ARI10-8·BAL9-8
ARI

ARI

10-8

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-55113102
SPRINT26.941
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44000002
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
3-44130001
SPRINT26.838
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44021002
SPRINT29.597
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000001
L. BakerL. Baker★1B
1-44010002
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
2-44120001
SPRINT25.29
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-44000002
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-22110010
SPRINT28.688
Team10-353541041113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
5.1522431
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.2000010
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.2211200
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1000000
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000010
Team9.0733651
BAL

BAL

9-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-55000002
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-55110000
SPRINT27.457
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-22100021
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
2-33121110
SPRINT25.310
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000011
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33012010
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33010010
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33000001
Team7-3131373165
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
4.2944161
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.1000020
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.1000030
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000020
N. RaquetN. RaquetRP
0.2100000
Team9.010441131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Kelly
    86 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      26%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      33%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      82%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    99 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.1 mph·16% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.5 mph·46% whiff
    • FC
      18%·81.3 mph·63% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.4 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Raquet
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      42%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      31%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      62%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·86.5 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3today
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3today
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+14141%
BALBAL-17163%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 5th Inning

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat BAL 4-3. Vargas's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 5th Inning · 3-2
+30pp→ 53% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (379 feet), McCann scored and Barrosa scored.

ARITop 5th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 68% WP

Fernandez · doubled to center, Perdomo scored.

ARIBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 80% WP

Jackson · grounded out to pitcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000400004
BAL0110000103

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Basallo 1

0
1

Inn 3

Taveras 1

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Vargas 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Taveras 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
BAL

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  3. B9

    Ward grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  7. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  8. B9

    Henderson popped out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

    −9pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

    −9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  21. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  22. B9

    Sewald relieved Thompson

    ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  25. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  26. T9

    Vargas flied out to right.

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

    +4pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·BAL 3

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

3

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

15

TB

11

1

HR

1

1

BB

6

13

K

5

12

LOB

14

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ARI +141/BAL -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 97
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 97
    41
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    293
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    135
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 96
    70
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs