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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5DET
MIA

MIA

8-7

1
6
DET

DET

6-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
31,414 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

DET no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 8 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIA 1 · DET 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0001000001
DET203000016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    215
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    20
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    175
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    25
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasDET -149

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Miami Marlins, 6–1.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA8-7
1
6
DET6-9
MIA8-7·DET6-9
MIA

MIA

8-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000012
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000000
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44110000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-44000002
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT2872
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000010
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.483
Team6-3333161037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.0554241
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000120
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0000000
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0111100
Team8.0665461
DET

DET

6-9

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33210010
SPRINT28.278
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000000
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-44111002
SPRINT28.381
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33100000
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-33224110
SPRINT2744
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33010000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-22011021
SPRINT26.123
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-44000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-33000002
Team6-2929666146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
5.2611150
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
3.1000220
Team9.0611370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. Junk
    99 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      28%·84.8 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·78.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      30%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Bender
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      39%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      38%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    74 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·92.4 mph·23% whiff
    • FS
      22%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.6 mph·43% whiff
    • SV
      3%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    61 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.8 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      38%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

1

Runs

6

2

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6today
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6today
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+12445%
DETDET-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat MIA 6-1.

Win probability

DET vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 61% WP

McGonigle · doubled to right.

DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 73% WP

Greene · singled to right, Keith scored.

DETBottom 3rd Inning · 0-5
+16pp→ 93% WP

Greene · homered to right center (408 feet), McGonigle scored and Dingler scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0001000001
DET20300001—6

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · DET won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Keith 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Greene 3

1
0

Inn 4

Norby 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Torkelson 1

0

Inn 9

MIA
DET

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  2. T9

    Marsee grounded out to first.

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 14 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 13 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 11 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  14. T9

    Pauley to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  15. T9

    Pauley to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  19. T9

    Drew Anderson pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  20. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  21. T9

    Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  28. T9

    Drew Anderson pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  29. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

  30. T9

    Pauley walked.

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 6

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

1

Runs

6

6

Hits

6

2

Errors

1

9

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

4

7

K

6

20

LOB

13

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 7·MIA +124/DET -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

DET vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.6± 1.6high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    1.6± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.6%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.