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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9NYM
NYM

NYM

5-4

9
0
SF

SF

3-6

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
36,553 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

-1.0-2.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.2%48.2%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 50.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 9 · SF 0 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0300501009
SF0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 99
    212
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    282
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-1/VegasSF -120

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 9–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYM +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Tyrone Taylor

Tyrone Taylor

CF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM5-4
9
0
SF3-6
NYM5-4·SF3-6
NYM

NYM

5-4

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-55000002
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-55121002
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-55000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-55220001
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
3-55231000
SPRINT25.513
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
0-11100010
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-33120011
SPRINT28.175
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44001002
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44111000
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
2-33124100
SPRINT28.891
Team12-404091281210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
7.0300240
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0000010
Team9.0300250
SF

SF

3-6

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000010
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000001
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-22010011
SPRINT27.148
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33000002
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000000
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.735
Team3-3030030025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
4.2775170
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.1311011
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0211110
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0000010
C. KossC. Koss2B
1.0000000
Team9.012972101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • K. Winn
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FS
      75%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

3

9

Runs

0

1

Errors

3

Current series

NYM win series 3-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0today
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2

Season series

NYM lead series 2-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0today
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2
Sep 4SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 5SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 6SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+10050%
SFSF-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

NYMNYM
T. Taylor

T. Taylor

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 9-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 74% WP

Vientos · scored and Young scored on fielding error by first baseman Encarnacion, Benge safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Chapman, Semien safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0300501009
SF0000000000

Period scoring

NYM won 3 · SF won 0

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Vientos 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

5
0

Inn 5

Taylor 3

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Taylor 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 9·SF 0

  2. B9

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  3. B9

    Chapman flied out to right.

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  5. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  6. B9

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  7. B9

    Arraez lined out to center.

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  17. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Luis Arraez

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  18. B9

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  19. B9

    Ramos flied out to right.

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  24. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 9·SF 0

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 9·SF 0

  27. T9

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  28. T9

    Taylor flied out to right.

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 9·SF 0

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

9

Runs

0

12

Hits

3

1

Errors

3

17

TB

3

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

10

K

5

15

LOB

12

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM +100/SF -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.