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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
BAL

BAL

3-4

4
5
PIT

PIT

4-3

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
38,986 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

47.7%

open 47.7%

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL51.7%43.7%PIT NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

BAL 4 · PIT 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000201014
PIT040010005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    212
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    219
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 97
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 97
    245
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    266
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.7%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0/VegasBAL -121

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Baltimore Orioles, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL3-4
4
5
PIT4-3
BAL3-4·PIT4-3
BAL

BAL

3-4

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33011022
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
3-55232100
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000013
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-33011010
SPRINT26.632
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT29.194
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000000
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000011
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
2-44220001
SPRINT28.175
L. TaverasL. TaverasCF
0-11000001
Team9-3434494159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
4.0644360
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0011320
T. WellsT. WellsRP
2.0000020
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000000
Team8.06556100
PIT

PIT

4-3

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33010012
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33100011
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000012
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-22101011
SPRINT26.735
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000011
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-33111011
SPRINT29.899
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-33121001
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-33111000
SPRINT27.765
Team6-27275650610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
6.0622440
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.1211100
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2000010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0111031
Team9.0944591

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    81 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      42%·87.2 mph·48% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Enns
    39 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Wells
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      27%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      2%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·77.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      35%·83.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      50%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      78%·99.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      22%·88.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5today
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5today
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-12155%
PITPIT+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
J. Triolo

J. Triolo

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

PIT beat BAL 5-4.

Win probability

PIT vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 65% WP

Griffin · doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.

BALTop 7th Inning · 3-5
+12pp→ 25% WP

Ward · doubled to center, Alexander scored.

PITTop 7th Inning · 3-5
+8pp→ 91% WP

Basallo · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000201014
PIT04001000—5

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · PIT won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Griffin 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
1

Inn 5

Henderson 1

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Ward 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Henderson 1

BAL
PIT

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  2. T9

    Alonso struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  6. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  7. T9

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  8. T9

    Henderson homered to right center (397 feet).

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

    −3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  15. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    BAL 4·PIT 5

  16. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  17. T9

    Ward struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

    +3pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  24. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  25. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  26. T9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

    +3pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PIT 5

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

4

Runs

5

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

9

1

HR

0

5

BB

6

9

K

10

20

LOB

9

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL -121/PIT +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.