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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6DET
MIA

MIA

8-8

2
8
DET

DET

7-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
26,768 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.0

open O/U 6.0

DET no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 6.5O/U 5.5TOTAL64.3%56.3%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 27, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIA 2 · DET 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000001012
DET300013018

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasDET -171

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Miami Marlins, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 6.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle

SS

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA8-8
2
8
DET7-9
MIA8-8·DET7-9
MIA

MIA

8-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.662
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33112100
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33000012
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33010002
SPRINT2872
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
D. De Los SantosD. De Los Santos★1B
0-22000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000000
L. HicksL. HicksC
0-11000000
Team6-3030262128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.01077243
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.0211120
Team8.01288363
DET

DET

7-9

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
3-44231110
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010001
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-55110001
SPRINT28.381
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-33220011
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44113100
SPRINT27.765
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33112111
SPRINT26.735
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44110001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44010000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44011001
Team12-36368127336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.2211270
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.1200000
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.0211011
Team9.0622281

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    100 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      26%·97.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      24%·90.5 mph·42% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      2%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    37 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      24%·83.6 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.0 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.4 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.7 mph·46% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Seabold
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      43%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

12

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8today

Season series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 10MIAMIA0@DETDET2
Apr 11MIAMIA1@DETDET6
Apr 12MIAMIA2@DETDET8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.0

Defensive · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+14141%
DETDET-17163%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

DETDET
K. McGonigle

K. McGonigle

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat MIA 8-2. Dingler's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

DET vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+19pp→ 88% WP

Dingler · homered to left (404 feet), Keith scored and Greene scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000001012
DET30001301—8

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · DET won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Dingler 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

McGonigle 1

0
3

Inn 6

Carpenter 2

1
0

Inn 7

Lopez 1

0
1

Inn 8

Keith 1

1

Inn 9

Lopez 1

MIA
DET

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  2. T9

    Edwards flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  6. T9

    Norby to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  7. T9

    Norby to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  9. T9

    Connor Seabold pitches to Xavier Edwards

    · ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  10. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  11. T9

    Norby singled to left.

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  14. T9

    Connor Seabold pitches to Connor Norby

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  15. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  16. T9

    Hernández struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  20. T9

    Connor Seabold pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  21. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  22. T9

    Lopez homered to left center (377 feet).

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

  26. T9

    Connor Seabold pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    MIA 2·DET 8

  27. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

  28. T9

    Marsee grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·DET 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

8

6

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

11

TB

21

1

HR

3

2

BB

3

8

K

6

9

LOB

16

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6·MIA +141/DET -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

DET vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    219
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    226
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    212
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    23
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs