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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BAL
SF

SF

6-9

2
6
BAL

BAL

7-7

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
29,444 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BAL no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL52.3%44.3%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SF 2 · BAL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0101000002
BAL011200116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    212
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    266
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasSF -118

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off San Francisco Giants, 6–2.

BAL +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Christian Koss

Christian Koss

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jeremiah Jackson

Jeremiah Jackson

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF6-9
2
6
BAL7-7
SF6-9·BAL7-7
SF

SF

6-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000011
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44210001
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010002
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44022000
SPRINT27.251
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010002
C. KossC. Koss2B
1-11010000
D. SusacD. SusacC
0-11000000
Team10-35352102016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
6.0544361
C. KilianC. KilianRP
0.2111121
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.1311030
Team8.09664112
BAL

BAL

7-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44111112
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000012
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000012
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000001
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-11010000
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-44100001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT28.175
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44112001
SPRINT2872
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
3-44132100
SPRINT26.530
D. BeaversD. BeaversRF
1-22210011
SPRINT29.194
Team9-33336962411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
4.2721120
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0000010
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0100020
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0200000
Team9.01021160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Webb
    98 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.3 mph·31% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      3%·93.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Borucki
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      59%·85.7 mph·54% whiff
    • FS
      17%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kilian
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • KC
      47%·81.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.8 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    89 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      35%·91.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      27%·71.3 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.9 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      16%·73.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.9 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      25%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      57%·85.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FS
      50%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6today
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6today
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-11854%
BALBAL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SFSF
C. Koss

C. Koss

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
J. Jackson

J. Jackson

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SF 6-2.

Win probability

BAL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 63% WP

Ramos · singled to center, Devers scored, Ramos to second.

BALBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 63% WP

Henderson · homered to right (361 feet).

BALBottom 4th Inning · 2-4
+12pp→ 78% WP

Jackson · doubled to right, Mayo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0101000002
BAL01120011—6

Period scoring

SF won 0 · BAL won 4

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Ramos 1

Cowser 1

0
1

Inn 3

Henderson 1

1
2

Inn 4

Ramos 1

Mayo 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Jackson 1

0
1

Inn 8

Mayo 1

0

Inn 9

SF
BAL

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  2. T9

    Bader grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  5. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  6. T9

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  7. T9

    Susac grounded into double play, second to first, Ramos out at second, Lee to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

    +6pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  12. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Daniel Susac

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  13. T9

    Susac hit for Bailey

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  14. T9

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  15. T9

    Ramos singled to left, Lee to second.

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

    −4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  22. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  23. T9

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  24. T9

    Lee singled to right.

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

    −1pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  27. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  28. T9

    Helsley relieved Nunez

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 2·BAL 6

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 2·BAL 6

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

6

10

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

11

TB

17

0

HR

2

1

BB

4

6

K

11

20

LOB

15

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·SF -118/BAL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.6%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.