
NYM
3-4

SF
3-4
Line movement
9 snapshots
SF spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
SF no-vig %
48.3%
open 48.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SF wins
NYM 2 · SF 7 (by 5)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SF +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-102
Close price
-102
Open no-vig
48.3%
Close no-vig
48.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
an Francisco Giants held off New York Mets, 7–2.
SF +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYM · top performer

Mark Vientos
1B
4-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
SF · top performer

Daniel Susac
C
3-3
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYM
3-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 5-30 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.1 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 3.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
SF
3-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| Team | 13-35 | 35 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
5
Hits
13
2
Runs
7
1
Errors
0
Current series
NYM win series 3-1
Season series
SF leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 1st Inning
M. Vientos
1BBatter of the game
1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS
D. Peterson
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 2 BB
D. Susac
CBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS
R. Ray
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB
How it ended
SF beat NYM 7-2.
Win probability
SF vs NYM
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBichette · doubled to left, Soto scored.
Arraez · tripled to right, Ramos scored.
Vientos · homered to left (406 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
NYM won 1 · SF won 4
Inn 1
Bichette 1
Chapman 2
Inn 2
Vientos 1
Inn 3
Lee 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Schmitt 1
Inn 6
Devers 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 547 plays
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Vientos struck out swinging.
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Blade Tidwell pitches to Mark Vientos
·
NYM 2·SF 7
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Robert Jr. struck out swinging.
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Blade Tidwell pitches to Luis Robert Jr.
·
NYM 2·SF 7
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Polanco popped out to third.
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Blade Tidwell pitches to Jorge Polanco
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Top of the 9th inning
NYM 2·SF 7
End of the 8th inning
NYM 2·SF 7
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Chapman grounded out to shortstop.
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 2·SF 7
Team stats
NYM
Away
Stat
SF
Home
2
Runs
7
5
Hits
13
1
Errors
0
9
TB
19
1
HR
1
3
BB
4
10
K
7
12
LOB
14
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 8·NYM -118/SF -102
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 66 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.3%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
52.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.5%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.75 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 15 players in cohort