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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SF
NYM

NYM

3-4

2
7
SF

SF

3-4

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
32,073 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.3%44.3%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 51.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

NYM 2 · SF 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM1100000002
SF302011007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 99
    219
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 2·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-1/VegasNYM -118

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off New York Mets, 7–2.

SF +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Daniel Susac

Daniel Susac

C

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM3-4
2
7
SF3-4
NYM3-4·SF3-4
NYM

NYM

3-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-22000021
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-33000012
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.175
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010001
SPRINT25.716
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000001
Team5-30302521310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
4.1965250
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
3.2411221
Team8.01376471
SF

SF

3-4

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000013
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-55121101
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-55210001
SPRINT27.251
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55221001
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-55121000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-22101010
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33001001
D. SusacD. Susac★C
3-33030010
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
3-33031010
SPRINT2872
Team13-35357136147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
5.1322371
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.2000010
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
3.0200020
Team9.05223101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

13

2

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7today
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7today
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2
Sep 4SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 5SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 6SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-11854%
SFSF-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 1st Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

SFSF
D. Susac

D. Susac

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat NYM 7-2.

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 63% WP

Bichette · doubled to left, Soto scored.

SFBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 53% WP

Arraez · tripled to right, Ramos scored.

NYMTop 2nd Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 39% WP

Vientos · homered to left (406 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM1100000002
SF30201100—7

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · SF won 4

1
3

Inn 1

Bichette 1

Chapman 2

1
0

Inn 2

Vientos 1

0
2

Inn 3

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Schmitt 1

0
1

Inn 6

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  2. T9

    Vientos struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  7. T9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  8. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  9. T9

    Robert Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  16. T9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  17. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  18. T9

    Polanco popped out to third.

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  23. T9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·SF 7

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 2·SF 7

  26. B8

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  27. B8

    Chapman grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 7

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

9

TB

19

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

10

K

7

12

LOB

14

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8·NYM -118/SF -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    52.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.5%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175