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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SF
MIA

MIA

13-14

2
6
SF

SF

12-15

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,589 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL54.4%46.4%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 51.7%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

MIA 2 · SF 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0010000012
SF000013026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 98
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 98
    245
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 98
    243
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 25·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -112

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Miami Marlins, 6–2.

SF +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA13-14
2
6
SF12-15
MIA13-14·SF12-15
MIA

MIA

13-14

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-55120001
SPRINT27.354
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000010
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-22000021
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44021002
SPRINT2872
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44000000
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-22000012
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-22000010
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-22000000
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
0-11100000
SPRINT28.586
L. HicksL. HicksC
0-11000000
J. MarseeJ. MarseeCF
1-22011000
SPRINT27.765
Team6-3232262056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.1744262
A. BenderA. BenderRP
0.2200010
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.0222301
Team8.01166573
SF

SF

12-15

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-55000002
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55021000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33110021
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-33122110
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44121101
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-44111100
SPRINT26.428
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33111012
Team11-34346116357
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
5.0411340
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0100100
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000000
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000120
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0110000
Team9.0621560

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    94 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      61%·97.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.1 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    46 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      37%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      43%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • R. Ray
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      59%·92.8 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.7 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.6 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      2%·78.9 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Gage
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      35%·83.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      75%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Winn
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      55%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6today
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6today
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6
Jun 19SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 20SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 21SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA-10852%
SFSF-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat MIA 6-2. Gilbert's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

SF vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 60% WP

Edwards · singled to right, Ramírez scored, Norby to third.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+23pp→ 58% WP

Gilbert · homered to right (370 feet).

SFBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+23pp→ 86% WP

Schmitt · homered to left center (404 feet), Chapman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0010000012
SF00001302—6

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · SF won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Edwards 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Gilbert 1

0
3

Inn 6

Schmitt 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Ramos 1

1

Inn 9

Marsee 1

MIA
SF

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  2. T9

    Ramírez grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Marsee out at second.

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  5. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  6. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  7. T9

    Marsee singled to center, Caissie scored.

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

    −1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  12. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    MIA 2·SF 6

  13. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  14. T9

    Hicks grounded out to second, Caissie to third.

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  19. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  20. T9

    Hicks hit for Sanoja

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  21. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  22. T9

    Caissie safe at first on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Caissie safe at second on error.

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

    −0.7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  25. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Owen Caissie

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  26. T9

    Walker relieved Miller

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  27. T9

    Caissie hit for Jiménez

    ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 1·SF 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 1·SF 6

  30. B8

    · ·

    MIA 1·SF 6

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

6

6

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

6

TB

25

0

HR

3

5

BB

5

6

K

7

18

LOB

18

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA -108/SF -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872