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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SF
MIA

MIA

13-15

3
6
SF

SF

13-15

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,445 attended

Line movement

28 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.6%48.6%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 52.3%May 3, 7 PMMay 25, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

MIA 3 · SF 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0300000003
SF001002306

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 98
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    66
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 97
    245
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    245
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -122

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Miami Marlins, 6–3.

SF +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Graham Pauley

Graham Pauley

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA13-15
3
6
SF13-15
MIA13-15·SF13-15
MIA

MIA

13-15

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.765
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000000
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000001
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33110000
SPRINT25.614
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-33000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000002
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-33113101
SPRINT26.326
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-22000011
Team2-2929323127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MeyerM. Meyer★SP
5.0410150
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0222100
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0233211
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000000
Team8.0865461
SF

SF

13-15

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
4-55240000
SPRINT27.148
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-11100021
SPRINT28.175
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-33000000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-33213111
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33111010
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000001
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT26.428
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-44000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-44000001
Team8-3131685146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
7.2233261
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.1000010
Team9.0233271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • M. Meyer
    77 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      35%·88.9 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      25%·90.7 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      65%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      50%·92.0 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      22%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bender
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.0 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • L. Roupp
    103 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.1 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      34%·76.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      3%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      92%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

8

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6today

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6today
Jun 19SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 20SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 21SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+10250%
SFSF-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 2nd Inning

MIAMIA
G. Pauley

G. Pauley

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Meyer

M. Meyer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

7.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat MIA 6-3. Pauley's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

SF vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+31pp→ 74% WP

Pauley · homered to right (362 feet), Edwards scored and Hicks scored.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 50% WP

Devers · doubled to center, Schmitt scored.

SFBottom 7th Inning · 3-6
+18pp→ 95% WP

Schmitt · homered to left center (406 feet), Lee scored and Chapman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0300000003
SF00100230—6

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · SF won 3

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Pauley 3

0
1

Inn 3

Arraez 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Devers 1

0
3

Inn 7

Schmitt 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
SF

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  2. T9

    Edwards lined out to left.

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

    +0.5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  5. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  6. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  7. T9

    Lopez flied out to right.

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

    +1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  10. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  11. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  12. T9

    Stowers grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  16. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Kyle Stowers

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 3·SF 6

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 3·SF 6

  19. B8

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  20. B8

    Lee flied out to left.

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  21. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  22. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  25. B8

    Anthony Bender pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  26. B8

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  27. B8

    Bailey lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 3·SF 6

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

6

2

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

5

TB

14

1

HR

1

2

BB

4

7

K

6

5

LOB

13

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +102/SF -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872