MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ARI

DET

2-3

ARI

2-3

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

28,780 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ARI no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

ARI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 2.7low
Framber ValdezDET
4.6± 2.7low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

ARI

.706

OPS

◀

.715

.690

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.306

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.26

3.97

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.23

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.28

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

DET 5 · ARI 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Keith3B	.389	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. McGonigleSS	.333	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
G. Torres2B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. GreeneLF	.190	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.105	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
S. Torkelson1B	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. MeadowsCF	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.167	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	6	5	0	2	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.389

.333

.188

.190

.105

.150

.125

.250

.167

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MizeSP	6.0	4	1	1	2	9	93
D. AndersonRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	16
W. VestRP	0.2	1	3	3	2	0	27
K. JansenRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	8
Team	8.0	8	7	7	4	12	144

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

144

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.211	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CarrollRF	.278	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
G. PerdomoSS	.263	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. MorenoC	.313	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. ThomasCF	.158	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. FernandezDH	.750	4	2	3	4	2	0	1
C. Santana1B	.063	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. McCannC	.200	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. LawlarLF	.308	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		30	7	8	7	2	4	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. PfaadtRP	6.0	6	5	5	1	3	85
A. HoffmannRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	32
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
Team	9.0	6	5	5	2	9	130

Team

DET

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ARI vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.