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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
STL

STL

5-4

5
3
DET

DET

4-5

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
28,823 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 56.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · DET 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000400105
DET0020010003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    234
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    266
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 95
    92
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    95
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasDET -149

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 5–3.

STL +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL5-4
5
3
DET4-5
STL5-4·DET4-5
STL

STL

5-4

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33012011
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44000000
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33010012
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33111000
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-33000011
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44100001
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44111001
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33111000
SPRINT29.798
Team6-3131565037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
5.0522341
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
0.1111200
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.2000110
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000120
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000010
Team9.0633781
DET

DET

4-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-33000021
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-55000002
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-22112111
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33100010
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-11010030
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33001001
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-22000001
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
0-22000000
Team6-3232363178
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
4.1332130
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
2.2221030
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
2.0100210
Team9.0653370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • K. Leahy
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.1 mph·63% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·97.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soriano
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      37%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      85%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.7 mph·— whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    63 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.6 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      32%·93.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      10%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Jesus
    38 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      26%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      29%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      6%·87.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3today

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+12445%
DETDET-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 5th Inning

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat DET 5-3. Herrera's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 74% WP

Carpenter · homered to center (425 feet), Keith scored.

STLTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 43% WP

Pag · és singled to left, Gorman scored, Church to third.

STLTop 5th Inning · 4-2
+24pp→ 74% WP

Herrera · singled to right, Pagés scored and Scott II scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000400105
DET0020010003

Period scoring

STL won 2 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Carpenter 2

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Herrera 2

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 9

STL
DET

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 5·DET 3

  2. B9

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  3. B9

    Vierling flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  10. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Matt Vierling

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  11. B9

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  12. B9

    Torres struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

    −4pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  19. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  20. B9

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  21. B9

    McGonigle grounded out to first.

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

    −4pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  23. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  24. B9

    O'Brien relieved Stanek

    ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    STL 5·DET 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    STL 5·DET 3

  27. T9

    Scott II caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    STL 5·DET 3

  28. T9

    Scott II caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    STL 5·DET 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 5·DET 3

  30. T9

    Connor Seabold pitches to JJ Wetherholt

    · ·

    STL 5·DET 3

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

5

Runs

3

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

6

TB

10

0

HR

1

3

BB

7

7

K

8

12

LOB

17

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·STL +124/DET -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.