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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PIT
BAL

BAL

3-6

2
8
PIT

PIT

6-3

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
11,956 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 55.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

BAL 2 · PIT 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0001001002
PIT240002008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0/VegasPIT -126

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Baltimore Orioles, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL3-6
2
8
PIT6-3
BAL3-6·PIT6-3
BAL

BAL

3-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
3-44130001
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000001
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000004
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.662
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.194
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33010002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33011000
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33000002
Team8-33332820014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
2.0666201
C. PovichC. PovichSP
5.2422321
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000010
Team8.01088532
PIT

PIT

6-3

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-44223100
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55110000
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-22101020
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-55124101
SPRINT26.735
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-33010001
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33000011
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-22110020
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44010000
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44220000
SPRINT2993
Team10-32328108253
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
6.0411080
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0311030
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
2.0100030
Team9.08220140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Povich
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      20%·75.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Bassitt
    62 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·88.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      13%·70.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·73.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FS
      71%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.7 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      24%·91.1 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      16%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      6%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      48%·83.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      60%·97.8 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      28%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8today

Season series

PIT wins series 3-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+10449%
PITPIT-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BALBAL
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Top reliever

5.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PIT beat BAL 8-2.

Win probability

PIT vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 63% WP

Henderson · struck out swinging.

PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 79% WP

O'Hearn · homered to center (402 feet), Reynolds scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0001001002
PIT24000200—8

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · PIT won 3

0
2

Inn 1

O'Hearn 2

0
4

Inn 2

O'Hearn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Cruz 2

1
0

Inn 7

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BAL
PIT

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  2. T9

    Beavers flied out to right.

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  7. T9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Dylan Beavers

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  8. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  9. T9

    O'Neill struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  16. T9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  17. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  18. T9

    Basallo struck out looking.

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  23. T9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Samuel Basallo

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  24. T9

    Cook in right field.

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  27. B8

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  28. B8

    O'Hearn struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 8

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

8

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

10

TB

17

0

HR

2

0

BB

5

14

K

3

10

LOB

15

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8·BAL +104/PIT -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    238
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    266
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    234
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    269
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    245
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PIT vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.