HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHC
MIL

MIL

97-65

3
4
CHC

CHC

92-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,737 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

MIL

league avg

CHC

CHC

.730

OPS

◀

.715

.721

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.331

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.29

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

MIL 3 · CHC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL1001001003
CHC400000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Oct 8·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Milwaukee Brewers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1Q. PriesterMIL−28.4pp
  2. 2B. KellerCHC+25.4pp
  3. 3J. ChourioMIL−20.7pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichDH
.3855110000
J. ChourioLF
.5454010001
B. Turang2B
.1673000012
W. ContrerasC
.4173010011
S. FrelickRF
.1823111000
C. Durbin3B
.2003010010
J. Bauers1B
.5004122101
B. LockridgeLF
.0002000001
J. OrtizSS
.2502000001
- I. CollinsLF
.0001000001
- A. MonasterioSS
.0000000000
- A. Vaughn1B
.2861000000
- B. PerkinsCF
.3002000001
Team33373139

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Q. PriesterSP
0.23442139
N. MearsRP
0.10001114
J. QuintanaSP
3.02001249
G. AndersonRP
2.01000230
J. KoenigRP
0.1200007
C. PatrickRP
1.20000122
Team8.084447161

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. Busch1B
.3004111101
N. Hoerner2B
.3914120000
K. TuckerRF
.2503120010
S. SuzukiRF
.2274010001
I. HappLF
.0952100022
C. KellyC
.2004000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
.2274012001
D. SwansonSS
.2003010010
M. ShawRF
.0003000001
Team31483147

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. TaillonSP
4.05221375
D. PomeranzRP
1.00000215
D. PalenciaRP
1.00000015
A. KittredgeRP
1.02110118
C. ThielbarRP
0.20001111
B. KellerRP
1.10001219
Team9.073339153

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Quintana
    49 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      55%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      10%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Q. Priester
    39 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      49%·94.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      43%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Patrick
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      55%·89.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      14%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Mears
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      71%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    75 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·85.5 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Keller
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      80%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      20%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      60%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      36%·78.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.7 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

MIL leads series 2-1

Oct 4CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Oct 7CHCCHC3@MILMIL7
Oct 8MILMIL3@CHCCHC4today
Oct 10MILMIL0@CHCCHC6
Oct 12CHCCHC1@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 8th Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat MIL 4-3.

Win probability

CHC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+16pp→ 76% WP

Crow-Armstrong · singled to right, Hoerner scored and Tucker scored, Happ to third.

MILTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 41% WP

Chourio · doubled to left.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+17pp→ 88% WP

Bauers · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL1001001003
CHC40000000—4

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · CHC won 1

1
4

Inn 1

Frelick 1

Crow-Armstrong 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Bauers 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Bauers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
CHC

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  2. T9

    Yelich grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  4. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Christian Yelich

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  5. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  6. T9

    Perkins struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

    +4pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  15. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  16. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  17. T9

    Vaughn flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

    +7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  20. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  21. T9

    Vaughn hit for Monasterio

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  24. B8

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  25. B8

    Swanson grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

    −0.7pp

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·CHC 4

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

12

TB

12

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

9

K

7

13

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    8.8± 2.6low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.3± 5.5low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.3± 3.7low

Hits

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.5± 1.2high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    2.9± 2.7high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Brice TurangMIL
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Brice TurangMIL
    0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Robert GasserMIL
    3.3± 3.0low
  • Edward CabreraCHC
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.2± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.1%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(CHC win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.