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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
DET

DET

87-75

2
3
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
47,025 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

DET 2 · SEA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112131415R
DET0000020000000002
SEA0100001000000013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Oct 10·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-2

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Detroit Tigers, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

2.257OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

1.000OPS

6-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final/15
DET87-75
2
3
SEA90-72
DET87-75·SEA90-72
DET

DET

87-75

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
4-55142121
SPRINT26.735
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-66000012
SPRINT25.18
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-66000011
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-66000004
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-55000003
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-66010001
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-66020001
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-55000003
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-66110001
SPRINT27.251
Team8-51512821417
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.02110130
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
0.2111100
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.1100000
W. VestW. VestRP
2.0100040
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
1.0100110
K. MonteroK. MonteroSP
2.0000100
J. FlahertyJ. FlahertySP
2.0000320
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.1211100
Team14.18337200
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-55000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-55010023
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-55000023
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-66111013
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-66000003
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
3-66130000
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-11001001
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-44010011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-66110002
SPRINT25.513
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
1-33011012
SPRINT27.560
Team8-47473830720
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
5.0311060
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2111001
M. BrashM. BrashRP
2.0000020
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.1000220
L. GilbertL. GilbertSP
2.0300120
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
2.2100140
L. CastilloL. CastilloSP
1.1000010
Team15.08224171

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Playoff series

SEA wins series 3-2

Oct 5DETDET3@SEASEA2
Oct 6DETDET2@SEASEA3
Oct 7SEASEA8@DETDET4
Oct 8SEASEA3@DETDET9
Oct 11DETDET2@SEASEA3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 6th Inning

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.257 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 13 K · 1 ER · 2 H

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-6 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SEA beat DET 3-2. Carpenter's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

SEA vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12I13I14I15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+25pp→ 67% WP

Carpenter · homered to center (411 feet), Báez scored.

SEABottom 7th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 61% WP

Rivas · singled to left, Polanco scored, Naylor to second.

SEABottom 12th Inning · 2-2
+23pp→ 70% WP

Rivas · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112131415R
DET0000020000000002
SEA0100001000000013

Period scoring

DET won 1 · SEA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Garver 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Carpenter 2

0
1

Inn 7

Rivas 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

0
0

Inn 11

0
0

Inn 12

0
0

Inn 13

0
0

Inn 14

0
1

Inn 15

Polanco 1

DET
SEA

Play-by-play · 920 plays

period
event
player
  1. B15

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  2. B15

    Polanco singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second, Arozarena to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

    +17pp

  3. B15

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  4. B15

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  5. B15

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  6. B15

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  7. B15

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  8. B15

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  9. B15

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Jorge Polanco

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  10. B15

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  11. B15

    Rodríguez intentionally walked.

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

    −2pp

  12. B15

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  13. B15

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  14. B15

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  15. B15

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  16. B15

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  17. B15

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  18. B15

    Raleigh lined out to center, Crawford to third, Arozarena safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Meadows.

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

    +3pp

  19. B15

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  20. B15

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  21. B15

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  22. B15

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  23. B15

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  24. B15

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  25. B15

    Arozarena hit by pitch, Crawford to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

    +9pp

  26. B15

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  27. B15

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  28. B15

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

  29. B15

    Crawford singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

    +12pp

  30. B15

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

13

TB

10

1

HR

0

4

BB

7

17

K

20

18

LOB

22

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

SEA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    60.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 6, 25sim 99
    62
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 5, 25sim 98
    63
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs