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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
DET

DET

87-75

2
3
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
47,371 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

DET 2 · SEA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000000202
SEA000101013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Oct 5·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-2

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Detroit Tigers, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco

1B

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
DET87-75
2
3
SEA90-72
DET87-75·SEA90-72
DET

DET

87-75

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33110012
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000012
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44100001
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44012000
SPRINT26.123
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-11000010
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000012
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT27.251
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-44000001
W. PerezW. PerezRF
0-22000001
Team3-31312320510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.0522192
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
0.2311010
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.1000000
Team8.08331102
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44110002
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
3-44232200
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000001
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-33010001
SPRINT24.53
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-22000010
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010001
Team8-32323832110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
4.2100430
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.1000020
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0100010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0121130
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000010
Team9.03215100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 5DETDET3@SEASEA2
Oct 6DETDET2@SEASEA3today
Oct 7SEASEA8@DETDET4
Oct 8SEASEA3@DETDET9
Oct 11DETDET2@SEASEA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 8th Inning

DETDET
G. Torres

G. Torres

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Polanco

J. Polanco

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SEA beat DET 3-2. Torkelson's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

SEA vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 69% WP

Polanco · homered to left center (392 feet).

DETTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+30pp→ 49% WP

Torkelson · doubled to right, Greene scored and Torres scored.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+21pp→ 92% WP

Rodr · íguez doubled to left, Raleigh scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000000202
SEA00010101—3

Period scoring

DET won 1 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Polanco 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Polanco 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Torkelson 2

Rodr 1

0

Inn 9

DET
SEA

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  2. T9

    Meadows grounded out to first.

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  12. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Parker Meadows

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  13. T9

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  14. T9

    Báez popped out to second.

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

    +4pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  17. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Javier Baez

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  18. T9

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  19. T9

    McKinstry struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

    +4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  23. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  24. T9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  25. T9

    Rivas at second base.

    DET 2·SEA 3

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 2·SEA 3

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 2·SEA 3

  28. B8

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  29. B8

    Naylor popped out to second.

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·SEA 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

3

3

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

4

TB

16

0

HR

2

5

BB

1

10

K

10

15

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

SEA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    60.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.6%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 11, 25sim 99
    62
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 5, 25sim 97
    63
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 94
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 94
    61
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs