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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
DET

DET

87-75

3
4
BOS

BOS

89-73

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
35,503 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

DET 3 · BOS 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
BOS100300004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 99
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 98
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 5, 25sim 96
    63
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    232
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    62
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez

2B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
David Hamilton

David Hamilton

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET87-75
3
4
BOS89-73
DET87-75·BOS89-73
DET

DET

87-75

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-44020010
SPRINT28.381
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-44000001
J. MalloyJ. Malloy★RF
1-44110001
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-44010002
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.969
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44113103
SPRINT27.251
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-22000021
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
3-33030010
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-44000002
Team9-33333931410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
4.1744452
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.2000110
T. RaineyT. RaineyRP
2.0000120
Team8.0744682
BOS

BOS

89-73

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55011001
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000011
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33010010
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-22100021
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33112111
SPRINT29.294
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44110002
Team7-3131474268
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. De LeonJ. De Leon★RP
6.2833381
S. MatzS. MatzSP
0.1000000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0000000
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100120
Team9.09334101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Paddack
    104 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      28%·83.7 mph·55% whiff
    • CU
      14%·76.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rainey
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      59%·96.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      41%·88.7 mph·60% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      59%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      41%·82.4 mph·33% whiff

BOS

  • J. De Leon
    101 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      48%·90.6 mph·5% whiff
    • SV
      24%·74.6 mph·69% whiff
    • SL
      16%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.8 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Matz
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4today

Season series

DET wins series 4-2

May 12BOSBOS2@DETDET14
May 13BOSBOS9@DETDET10
May 14BOSBOS5@DETDET6
Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 4th Inning

DETDET
A. Ibanez

A. Ibanez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

BOSBOS
D. Hamilton

D. Hamilton

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. De Leon

J. De Leon

RP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat DET 4-3. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 4th inning (26pp).

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+26pp→ 67% WP

Báez homered to left center (379 feet), Malloy scored and Pérez scored.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 3-3
+23pp→ 58% WP

Hamilton · homered to right center (381 feet), Wong scored.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 76% WP

Rogers · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ibáñez out at second, Sweeney to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
BOS10030000—4

Period scoring

DET won 0 · BOS won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Yoshida 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
3

Inn 4

Hamilton 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  2. T9

    Meadows flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

    +12pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  4. T9

    Greg Weissert pitches to Parker Meadows

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  5. T9

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  6. T9

    Rogers struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

    +11pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  11. T9

    Greg Weissert pitches to Jake Rogers

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  12. T9

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  13. T9

    Ibáñez reached on infield single to shortstop, Sweeney to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

    −9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  21. T9

    Greg Weissert pitches to Andy Ibanez

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  22. T9

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  23. T9

    Sweeney walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

    −7pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  30. T9

    Greg Weissert pitches to Trey Sweeney

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

4

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

12

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

6

10

K

8

15

LOB

18

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872