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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
DET

DET

87-75

3
2
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
47,290 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 3 · SEA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
DET000020000013
SEA000101000002

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 11, 25sim 98
    62
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 97
    62
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Oct 4·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
DET87-75
3
2
SEA90-72
DET87-75·SEA90-72
DET

DET

87-75

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-55112102
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-55020002
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33100021
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-22010001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000012
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-55011002
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-55000000
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.381
W. PerezW. PerezRF
0-22000002
Team7-40403731416
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MeltonT. Melton★SP
4.0211141
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.0000000
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000000
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0000010
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0100010
W. VestW. VestRP
2.0000020
K. MonteroK. MonteroSP
1.0100000
Team11.0622281
SEA

SEA

90-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44100011
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
3-55030000
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
3-55132101
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000010
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-44000001
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-22000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-22000001
Team6-3838262128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
5.0622181
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.2000100
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.1000000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.1000020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2000120
A. MunozA. MunozRP
2.0000020
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0111120
Team11.07334161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • K. Finnegan
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      67%·87.1 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      60%·80.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      40%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • M. Brash
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      77%·86.6 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      58%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      37%·83.1 mph·75% whiff
    • FS
      5%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      86%·83.5 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

DET leads series 1-0

Oct 5DETDET3@SEASEA2today
Oct 6DETDET2@SEASEA3
Oct 7SEASEA8@DETDET4
Oct 8SEASEA3@DETDET9
Oct 11DETDET2@SEASEA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 11th Inning

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

T. Melton

T. Melton

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat SEA 3-2. McKinstry's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

SEA vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+26pp→ 53% WP

Carpenter · homered to right center (409 feet), Meadows scored.

SEABottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Raleigh · singled to center, Arozarena to third.

DETTop 11th Inning · 3-2
+36pp→ 79% WP

McKinstry · singled to center, Torkelson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
DET000020000013
SEA000101000002

Period scoring

DET won 2 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rodr 1

2
0

Inn 5

Carpenter 2

0
1

Inn 6

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

McKinstry 1

DET
SEA

Play-by-play · 651 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    DET 3·SEA 2

  2. B11

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  3. B11

    Naylor grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

    −11pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  5. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  6. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  7. B11

    Keider Montero pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  8. B11

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  9. B11

    Rodríguez singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

    +5pp

  10. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  11. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  12. B11

    Keider Montero pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  13. B11

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  14. B11

    Raleigh fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

    −7pp

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  16. B11

    Keider Montero pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  17. B11

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  18. B11

    Arozarena grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

    −7pp

  19. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  20. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  21. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  22. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  23. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  24. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  25. B11

    Keider Montero pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  26. B11

    K. Montero relieved Vest

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  27. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    DET 3·SEA 2

  28. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    DET 3·SEA 2

  29. T11

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

  30. T11

    Báez grounded out to second.

    · ·

    DET 3·SEA 2

    −1pp

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

11

TB

9

1

HR

1

4

BB

2

16

K

8

20

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

SEA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    61.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.