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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6DET
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
9
DET

DET

87-75

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
37,069 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

SEA 3 · DET 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0101100003
DET000034119

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 7, 25sim 98
    128
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    23
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    147
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    26
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Oct 8·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Seattle Mariners, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Dominic Canzone

Dominic Canzone

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA90-72
3
9
DET87-75
SEA90-72·DET87-75
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33011011
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000003
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
3-44230000
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-11011000
SPRINT25.920
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-22000020
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44010001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-22000001
Team8-33333820410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
4.1422020
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2322101
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0433011
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0222101
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
1.0000000
Team8.01399233
DET

DET

87-75

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-55000001
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-33121111
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44111100
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.123
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
3-44231000
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33111011
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-11000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-44124100
SPRINT27.251
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-11111000
W. PerezW. PerezRF
1-22110000
Team13-35359139323
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
3.0211260
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
2.0211000
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
3.0200130
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000010
Team9.08334100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Miller
    55 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.1 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      18%·84.3 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      11%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    33 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      52%·98.7 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      36%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      52%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      43%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·97.3 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Speier
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      38%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Jackson
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      50%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    54 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      39%·89.4 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      4%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Melton
    35 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      74%·98.0 mph·36% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    25 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      44%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      47%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      33%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • W. Vest
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

13

3

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 5DETDET3@SEASEA2
Oct 6DETDET2@SEASEA3
Oct 7SEASEA8@DETDET4
Oct 8SEASEA3@DETDET9today
Oct 11DETDET2@SEASEA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SEASEA
D. Canzone

D. Canzone

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H

DETDET
G. Torres

G. Torres

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat SEA 9-3.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 72% WP

Keith · grounded into double play, to first, Torres out at second.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+14pp→ 61% WP

Báez singled to left, Jones scored.

DETBottom 6th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 75% WP

Greene · homered to right center (454 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0101100003
DET00003411—9

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

3

Runs

9

8

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

9

TB

26

0

HR

3

4

BB

2

10

K

3

14

LOB

10

Win probability

DET vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · DET won 4

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Canzone 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Robles 1

1
3

Inn 5

Raleigh 1

Dingler 1

0
4

Inn 6

Greene 1

0
1

Inn 7

Torres 1

0
1

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
DET

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  2. T9

    Arozarena struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  8. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  9. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  10. T9

    Crawford grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  12. T9

    Will Vest pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  13. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  14. T9

    Robles grounded out to second.

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  20. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Victor Robles

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  21. T9

    Vest relieved Melton

    ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·DET 9

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 3·DET 9

  24. B8

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  25. B8

    Carpenter flied out to center.

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

  30. B8

    Luke Jackson pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    · ·

    SEA 3·DET 9

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381