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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
SEA

SEA

90-72

8
4
DET

DET

87-75

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
41,525 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 8 · DET 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0022010128
DET0000100034

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 98
    123
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 96
    164
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    26
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    225
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 94
    148
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Oct 7·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-2

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Jake Rogers

Jake Rogers

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA90-72
8
4
DET87-75
SEA90-72·DET87-75
SEA

SEA

90-72

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-55121002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44123111
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-55000002
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000012
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-55000000
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33111111
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-11100011
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-44110001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-22222110
SPRINT25.513
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000000
Team8-34348873510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.0411070
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000020
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000000
Team9.0744190
DET

DET

87-75

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44001002
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-33000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44112001
SPRINT26.123
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33110000
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-33000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010001
J. RogersJ. RogersC
1-11110000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-11011000
Team7-3232474019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
3.1443361
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.2100110
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.2111011
K. MonteroK. MonteroSP
2.1010120
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.0222001
Team9.08865103

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.2 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      24%·81.4 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Brash
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      85%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      78%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      78%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.1 mph·— whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    76 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.7 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.4 mph·36% whiff
    • KC
      18%·79.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·91.0 mph·— whiff
  • K. Montero
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      35%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      19%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      87%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      54%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.9 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      55%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

8

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Playoff series

SEA leads series 2-1

Oct 5DETDET3@SEASEA2
Oct 6DETDET2@SEASEA3
Oct 7SEASEA8@DETDET4today
Oct 8SEASEA3@DETDET9
Oct 11DETDET2@SEASEA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

SEASEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H

DETDET
J. Rogers

J. Rogers

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat DET 8-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 70% WP

Crawford · singled to left, Robles scored on throwing error by left fielder Greene, Crawford to second.

SEATop 4th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 83% WP

Suárez homered to left center (422 feet).

SEATop 6th Inning · 5-1
+6pp→ 91% WP

Crawford · homered to right (397 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0022010128
DET0000100034

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Crawford 1

2
0

Inn 4

Raleigh 1

0
1

Inn 5

Carpenter 1

1
0

Inn 6

Crawford 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Crawford 1

2
3

Inn 9

Raleigh 2

Torkelson 2

SEA
DET

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 8·DET 4

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  3. B9

    Meadows lined into double play, to first, Ibáñez doubled off first.

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  9. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Parker Meadows

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  10. B9

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  11. B9

    Dingler flied out to left.

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

    −2pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  16. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  17. B9

    Muñoz relieved Ferguson

    ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  18. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  19. B9

    Ibáñez singled to right, Torkelson scored.

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

    +2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  25. B9

    Caleb Ferguson pitches to Andy Ibanez

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 4

  26. B9

    Ibáñez hit for McKinstry

    ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  27. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  28. B9

    Torkelson doubled to right, Jones scored and Rogers scored.

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

    +0.9pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 8·DET 1

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

8

Runs

4

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

19

TB

9

3

HR

0

5

BB

1

10

K

9

14

LOB

8

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.5%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278