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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PHI
PHI

PHI

82-59

9
3
MIA

MIA

65-76

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
15,118 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 9 · MIA 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI1103004009
MIA0010000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 97
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    168
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 94
    23
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 94
    163
    26(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    132
    21(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    123
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Brian Navarreto

Brian Navarreto

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI82-59
9
3
MIA65-76
PHI82-59·MIA65-76
PHI

PHI

82-59

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
4-55140000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-55020002
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55011001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33110010
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44212111
SPRINT28.175
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44211113
SPRINT27.662
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
2-55222100
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-55020001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44123110
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
0-11000000
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-11000000
Team16-42429169448
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
7.0611150
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0222011
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000000
Team9.0833161
MIA

MIA

65-76

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT28.381
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-33000000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33000012
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44010000
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-44010001
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-44010001
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
1-44110000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33011000
SPRINT28.381
JJ. Winkler2B
1-11110000
B. NavarretoB. Navarreto1B
1-11112100
Team8-3434383116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
V. BellozoV. Bellozo★RP
3.0422021
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0333002
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
2.0400230
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0344211
S. MartinezS. MartinezRP
1.0000010
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0200010
Team9.01699484

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      37%·87.0 mph·39% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.2 mph·14% whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • V. Bellozo
    48 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      35%·91.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      21%·79.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·86.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    46 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      35%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    38 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      32%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.3 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    25 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      63%·97.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      38%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Martinez
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.8 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

8

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 5-2

Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3today
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5

Season series

PHI leads series 6-2

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3today
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
B. Navarreto

B. Navarreto

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

V. Bellozo

V. Bellozo

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PHI beat MIA 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 37% WP

Lopez · reached on infield single to shortstop.

MIABottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 41% WP

Sanoja · doubled to left, Mesa Jr. scored.

PHITop 4th Inning · 4-1
+13pp→ 87% WP

Marsh · homered to right center (420 feet), Realmuto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI1103004009
MIA0010000203

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

9

Runs

3

16

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

28

TB

14

4

HR

1

4

BB

1

8

K

6

23

LOB

13

Win probability

MIA vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

PHI won 4 · MIA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Harper 1

1
0

Inn 2

Kepler 1

0
1

Inn 3

Sanoja 1

3
0

Inn 4

Marsh 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Stott 3

0
2

Inn 8

Navarreto 2

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
MIA

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  3. B9

    Mesa Jr. flied out to left.

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  7. B9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Victor Mesa Jr.

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  8. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  9. B9

    Acosta grounded out to third.

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  17. B9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Maximo Acosta

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  18. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  19. B9

    Wiemer lined out to right.

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  22. B9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Joey Wiemer

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  23. B9

    Mayza relieved Banks

    ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  27. T9

    Sosa flied out to left.

    · ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 9·MIA 3

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    43.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.3%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381