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FINAL+4TB
BOS

BOS

85-71

3
7
TB

TB

76-80

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BOS 3 · TB 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0001002003
TB300001037

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Boston Red Sox, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Romy Gonzalez

Romy Gonzalez

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS85-71
3
7
TB76-80
BOS85-71·TB76-80
BOS

BOS

85-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110012
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-55110002
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-33021020
SPRINT25.818
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-55020000
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-22021020
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44110003
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44011001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000004
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-44000002
Team10-353531030514
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
4.0332240
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100020
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0111011
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0222010
P. TolleP. TolleSP
1.0211110
Team8.0976391
TB

TB

76-80

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-33210011
SPRINT25.716
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-33220010
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33211111
SPRINT27.148
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
2-44024000
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44010001
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-44000001
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-22000001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000003
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11001001
Team9-3232796139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BoyleJ. Boyle★SP
4.1411490
C. SulserC. SulserRP
0.2200110
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000010
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0422010
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000000
Team9.010335140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Early
    67 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.4 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      19%·79.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Tolle
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      86%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·83.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.2 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • J. Boyle
    93 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.3 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      40%·90.5 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      20%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Baker
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      46%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      43%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      64%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.2 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      38%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

3

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 4-2

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7today

Season series

BOS wins series 10-3

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Jun 9TBTB10@BOSBOS8
Jun 10TBTB1@BOSBOS3
Jun 11TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 10TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 11TBTB4@BOSBOS5
Jul 12TBTB0@BOSBOS1
Jul 13TBTB1@BOSBOS4
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
R. Gonzalez

R. Gonzalez

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

TBTB
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Boyle

J. Boyle

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TB beat BOS 7-3. Gonz's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

TB vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 79% WP

Morel · doubled to left, Simpson scored and Díaz scored, Caminero to third.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 1-4
+10pp→ 26% WP

Story · singled to right, Duran to third.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 44% WP

Gonz · ález singled to right, Story scored, Bregman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0001002003
TB30000103—7

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · TB won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Morel 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Rafaela 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lowe 1

2
0

Inn 7

Bregman 1

0
3

Inn 8

Morel 2

0

Inn 9

BOS
TB

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  2. T9

    Yoshida grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  5. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  6. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  7. T9

    Bregman lined out to right.

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  11. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  12. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  13. T9

    Story flied out to right.

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

    +0.9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  17. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Trevor Story

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  18. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Uceta

    ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·TB 7

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 3·TB 7

  21. B8

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  22. B8

    Williams struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  27. B8

    Payton Tolle pitches to Carson Williams

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

  29. B8

    Mangum hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Lowe scored, Morel to third.

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

    +0.6pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·TB 7

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TB

Home

3

Runs

7

10

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

12

TB

13

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

14

K

9

16

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    44.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 97
    26
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 95
    123
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    24
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    229
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 94
    138
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    132
    21(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs