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FINAL+2CHC
STL

STL

78-84

0
2
CHC

CHC

92-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,497 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

STL 0 · CHC 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
CHC000010102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    31
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 94
    263
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 93
    62
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 93
    231
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 92
    30
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 92
    261
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off St. Louis Cardinals, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Victor Scott II

Victor Scott II

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Reese McGuire

Reese McGuire

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL78-84
0
2
CHC92-70
STL78-84·CHC92-70
STL

STL

78-84

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-33000011
SPRINT27.148
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000000
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000002
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.354
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000002
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
1-44010003
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-33000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
2-33020000
SPRINT29.798
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.586
Team6-32320600110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
3.0100010
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.2211021
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.1000020
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0210020
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0100020
Team8.0621091
CHC

CHC

92-70

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22000000
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000001
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33111102
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33011001
SPRINT24.53
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33010000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-11000000
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000002
R. McGuireR. McGuireC
1-11010000
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
1-11110000
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-22000001
Team6-2929262109
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AssadJ. Assad★SP
5.1300160
M. SorokaM. SorokaSP
0.2000000
J. WicksJ. WicksRP
3.0300040
Team9.06001100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • K. Leahy
    39 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.3 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      22%·79.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      53%·96.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      41%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Assad
    79 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      37%·92.0 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.0 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.8 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Wicks
    41 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Soroka
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      29%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-1

Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2today

Season series

CHC win series 8-5

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

STLSTL
V. Scott II

V. Scott II

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H

CHCCHC
R. McGuire

R. McGuire

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Assad

J. Assad

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat STL 2-0.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 63% WP

Crow-Armstrong · singled to right.

CHCBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 75% WP

Suzuki · homered to left (379 feet).

CHCBottom 7th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 90% WP

Ballesteros · singled to center, Alcántara scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
CHC00001010—2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

0

Runs

2

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

9

0

HR

1

1

BB

0

10

K

9

12

LOB

8

Win probability

CHC vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

STL won 0 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Ballesteros 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
CHC

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  2. T9

    Crooks struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  7. T9

    Jordan Wicks pitches to Jimmy Crooks

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  8. T9

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  9. T9

    Walker struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

    +5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  14. T9

    Jordan Wicks pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  15. T9

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  16. T9

    Saggese doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

    −5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  20. T9

    Jordan Wicks pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  21. T9

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  22. T9

    Gorman flied out to center.

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

    +4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  26. T9

    Jordan Wicks pitches to Nolan Gorman

    ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 0·CHC 2

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 0·CHC 2

  29. B8

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

  30. B8

    Hoerner struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 0·CHC 2

    −0.7pp

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.1%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Victor Scott IISTL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278