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FINAL+2CHC
PIT

PIT

52-72

1
3
CHC

CHC

69-53

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,062 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

PIT 1 · CHC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0001000001
CHC000100023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT52-72
1
3
CHC69-53
PIT52-72·CHC69-53
PIT

PIT

52-72

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.483
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-33111110
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-44000002
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-33000011
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-33010002
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
0-33000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-11000001
Team5-32321511211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
5.0511240
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
2.0100010
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.1222000
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.2100110
Team8.0933360
CHC

CHC

69-53

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-44220001
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-44121000
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-11000011
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22000020
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010000
Team9-3030393036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
7.0311261
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0100020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0100030
Team9.05112111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Burrows
    68 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      32%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      28%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      10%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      67%·78.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    85 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·90.6 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      26%·83.4 mph·62% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Keller
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      40%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·91.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      53%·90.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-2

Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3today
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4

Season series

CHC lead series 6-3

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3today
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 8th Inning

PITPIT
T. Pham

T. Pham

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.000 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 3-1. Suzuki's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHC vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 38% WP

Pham · homered to left (428 feet).

CHCBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 74% WP

Kelly · singled to center, Tucker scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 94% WP

Suzuki · singled to center, Tucker scored, Suzuki to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0001000001
CHC00010002—3

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Pham 1

Kelly 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Suzuki 1

0

Inn 9

PIT
CHC

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  2. T9

    Horwitz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  4. T9

    N. Gonzales to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  5. T9

    N. Gonzales to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  9. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  10. T9

    Horwitz hit for Peguero

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  11. T9

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  12. T9

    Bart struck out looking.

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

    +4pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  18. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Joey Bart

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  19. T9

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  20. T9

    McCutchen struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

    +6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  26. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  27. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  28. T9

    N. Gonzales singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

    −7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 1·CHC 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

1

Runs

3

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

9

TB

10

1

HR

0

2

BB

3

11

K

6

9

LOB

18

Player projections

CHC vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.1%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    233
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    31
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs