MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SEA

LAA

69-79

SEA

80-68

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

36,143 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
61.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 0.8high
Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Julio RodriguezSEA
2.5± 2.2high
Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Luis CastilloSEA
3.2± 3.1low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

LAA 1 · SEA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
SEA	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
M. Trout★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.688
C. Taylor★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Y. Moncada★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. Ward★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rengifo★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
O. Peraza★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Davidson★1B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. Rivero★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Teodosio★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.395
M. LugoLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	4-31	31	1	4	1	0	2	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

1-4

0-1

0-4

1-4

0-4

1-4

0-2

1-2

0-1

0-1

Team

4-31

	Pitching
Y. Kikuchi★SP	6.0	4	1	1	1	3	0
C. BrogdonRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	4	1
Team	8.0	6	2	2	2	7	1

Pitching

Player

Y. Kikuchi★SP

6.0

C. BrogdonRP

2.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
R. Arozarena★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Raleigh★C	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Rodriguez★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.688
E. Suarez★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Polanco★1B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.310
M. Garver★C	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT24.53
V. Robles★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Raley★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.P. Crawford★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2

Team	6-29	29	2	6	2	1	2	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI