MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

TEX

81-81

CLE

88-74

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

31,054 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.6%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Josh JungTEX
1.7± 1.5high
Angel MartinezCLE
1.6± 1.8high

RBIs

Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.6± 1.1high
Josh JungTEX
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

CLE

.698

OPS

◀

.715

.689

.316

OBP

.319

.317

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.16

3.79

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

TEX 8 · CLE 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
TEX	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	8
CLE	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. HelmanCF	.232	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. Freeman3B	.228	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.251	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
A. GarciaRF	.227	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Burger1B	.236	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.224	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.213	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
D. MooreCF	.201	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.212	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.181	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Solano1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.228	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
B. McKinneyLF	.200	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	8	7	8	1	2	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.232

.228

.251

.227

.236

.224

.213

.201

.212

.181

.000

.228

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. CorbinSP	4.0	4	3	3	2	5	90
D. CoulombeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
H. MilnerRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	30
L. CurveloRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	30
J. CorniellSP	1.2	3	4	3	1	1	41
Team	9.0	11	9	8	4	9	203

Player

4.0

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.2

Team

9.0

203

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.272	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. MartinezLF	.224	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.283	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.197	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
B. NaylorC	.195	4	2	2	2	0	0	0
G. AriasSS	.220	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.233	4	1	1	4	1	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. NoelRF	.162	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.220	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.234	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.333	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. KayfusLF	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	11	9	2	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. AllenRP	4.1	5	4	4	2	4	88
M. FestaRP	1.2	0	1	0	0	2	24
K. AllardRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25
Z. KentRP	2.0	2	3	2	0	0	20
Team	10.0	7	8	6	2	8	157

Team

TEX

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.