MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CIN

CIN

83-78

MIL

96-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

40,801 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
61.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.2%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

MIL

.708

OPS

.715

▶

.730

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

4.74

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.42

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 7 · MIL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
MIL	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.260	6	0	1	2	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.263	5	1	0	0	0	0	3
M. AndujarDH	.374	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
S. Stewart1B	.255	4	2	2	2	1	0	2
E. De La CruzSS	.264	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
T. StephensonC	.232	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
K. Hayes3B	.239	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
M. McLain2B	.221	3	1	2	1	0	2	0
W. BensonRF	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	10	6	1	7	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.260

.263

.374

.237

.255

.264

.232

.239

.221

.226

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. AbbottSP	5.1	5	3	3	0	4	85
C. PhillipsRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	14
G. AshcraftRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
N. MartinezSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	31
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	4	4	3	7	154

Player

5.1

0.1

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

154

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. YelichDH	.265	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. ChourioLF	.268	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Turang2B	.287	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
A. Vaughn1B	.307	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
I. CollinsLF	.262	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. PerkinsCF	.227	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.234	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.236	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.290	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	7	4	1	3	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. GasserSP	2.2	4	4	0	2	3	57
J. MisiorowskiSP	2.1	3	2	1	3	3	58
G. AndersonRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	26
R. ZastryznyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RodriguezRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	5	51
Team	9.0	10	7	2	7	13	195

Team

CIN

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.