MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CIN

CIN

76-76

STL

74-79

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

23,462 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 3.5low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.4± 1.9high
Lars NootbaarSTL
2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.1high
Lars NootbaarSTL
0.8± 1.0low

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

STL

.708

OPS

.715

▶

.716

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.55

4.74

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.04

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 6 · STL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	0	0	6
STL	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. LuxLF	.267	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.274	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.227	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.266	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.286	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
E. De La CruzSS	.263	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. SteerLF	.242	4	1	3	5	1	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Espinal3B	.243	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	11	5	1	3	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.274

.227

.266

.286

.263

.242

.249

.223

.243

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. SingerSP	5.2	3	2	1	2	6	97
G. AshcraftRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
C. BurnsSP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	26
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
Team	9.0	5	2	1	4	11	150

Player

5.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

150

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. NootbaarLF	.237	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
I. HerreraDH	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.285	3	1	2	1	1	1	1
N. Arenado3B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. SaggeseLF	.264	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. CrooksC	.107	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. Scott IICF	.215	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	2	5	1	1	4	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. PallanteSP	5.0	6	4	4	3	3	102
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	22
M. SvansonRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	19
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	11	6	6	3	9	170

Team

CIN

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.