HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA3:23 - 2nd
    GS 31@SEA 32
    +10.5pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
TEX

TEX

79-72

3
6
HOU

HOU

82-69

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
30,484 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

TEX

league avg

HOU

HOU

.698

OPS

.715

▶

.729

.316

OBP

.319

.319

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.87

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TEX 3 · HOU 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000300003
HOU200020206

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 15·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Texas Rangers, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. PenaHOU+56.6pp
  2. 2J. LeiterTEX−51.2pp
  3. 3Z. ColeHOU+35.4pp

TEX · top performer

TEX
Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Zach Cole

Zach Cole

LF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Smith2B
.2573011001
W. LangfordLF
.2453020011
J. PedersonDH
.1753000001
J. Burger1B
.2464000003
A. GarciaRF
.2314000001
A. OsunaLF
.1972100000
J. Jung3B
.2514122100
J. HeimC
.2153010010
D. MooreCF
.2042110000
- C. Freeman3B
.2252000000
- K. HigashiokaC
.2431000000
- M. HelmanCF
.2882010001
- R. Tellez1B
.2281010000
- E. Duran2B
.2311010000
Team353103128

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. LeiterSP
6.256314102
J. WebbRP
0.1100005
C. Edwards Jr.RP
1.0000018
Team8.066315115

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaSS
.2994321000
Y. AlvarezDH
.2730100010
C. CorreaSS
.2734010001
J. Altuve2B
.2624000001
C. Walker1B
.2373000002
J. MeyersCF
.3064000001
V. CaratiniC
.2653000000
Y. DiazC
.2573000000
J. SanchezRF
.2423110000
- Z. ColeLF
.4623123100
- M. DubonSS
.2470000000
Team31664115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. AlexanderRP
4.25311583
S. OkertRP
1.10000317
J. MurrayRP
0.1200007
B. KingRP
1.21000019
B. AbreuRP
1.02001012
Team9.0103128138

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • C. Edwards Jr.
    35 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.2 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      37%·78.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.2 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • B. Abreu
    32 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.3 mph·22% whiff
  • J. Murray
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      42%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

3

Runs

6

2

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6today
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Season series

TEX leads series 6-5

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6today
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TEXTEX
R. Tellez

R. Tellez

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
Z. Cole

Z. Cole

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 6-3. Cole's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 45% WP

Jung · homered to left (352 feet), Osuna scored.

TEXTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 60% WP

Smith · singled to right, Moore scored.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+31pp→ 71% WP

Cole · homered to right (390 feet), Peña scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000300003
HOU20002020—6

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

3

Runs

6

10

Hits

6

2

Errors

1

13

TB

11

1

HR

1

2

BB

1

8

K

5

11

LOB

8

Win probability

HOU vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · HOU won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Correa 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
2

Inn 5

Jung 2

Cole 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Cole 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
HOU

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  2. T9

    Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Duran out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  5. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Cody Freeman

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  6. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  7. T9

    Duran singled to right, Heim to second.

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

    −2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  9. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  10. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  11. T9

    Heim walked.

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

    −0.6pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  16. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Jonah Heim

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  17. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  18. T9

    Jung grounded into double play, second to first, Helman out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

    +6pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  22. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  23. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  24. T9

    Helman singled to center.

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

    −3pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  27. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Michael Helman

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  28. T9

    Abreu relieved King

    ·

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  29. T9

    Dubón at second base.

    TEX 3·HOU 6

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·HOU 6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.5low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    5.8± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.6± 3.6low

Hits

  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Isaac ParedesHOU
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Isaac ParedesHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Elias DiazTEX
    0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    2.9± 2.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(HOU win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.