MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8ATL

ATL

67-83

113

WSH

62-88

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

13,979 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.1%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low
Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
2.7± 3.4low
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

WSH

.749

OPS

◀

.715

.740

.322

OBP

.319

.322

5.12

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.73

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 11 · WSH 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	2	3	1	2	0	3	11
WSH	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.261	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.277	5	2	4	4	1	0	1
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.275	4	2	2	1	1	1	1
O. Albies2B	.240	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.286	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. BaldwinC	.268	5	1	3	4	1	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.228	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.239	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		40	11	16	10	3	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.261

.277

.275

.240

.286

.268

.228

.239

.232

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. StriderSP	7.0	4	1	1	2	6	96
C. SeaboldRP	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	13
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
A. DiazRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	25
Team	9.0	6	3	3	5	9	149

Player

7.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

149

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. AbramsSS	.263	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. WoodRF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. LileLF	.292	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.258	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. DeJong3B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. CrewsRF	.202	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. AdamsC	.197	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Hassell IIICF	.234	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. Chaparro1B	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	2	1	5	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. ParkerRP	5.0	10	6	6	1	1	103
S. OgasawaraRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	36
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	3	25
Team	9.0	16	11	11	2	6	173

Team

ATL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.