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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
KC

KC

55-56

2
4
TOR

TOR

65-47

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,842 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

KC 2 · TOR 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000011002
TOR003000104

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Kansas City Royals, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Kyle Isbel

Kyle Isbel

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC55-56
2
4
TOR65-47
KC55-56·TOR65-47
KC

KC

55-56

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-11010000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000000
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000000
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44121101
SPRINT241
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000003
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.225
JJ. Rave★RF
0-22000001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-22021000
SPRINT26.941
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-22000000
SPRINT2872
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
Team6-3232262107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
6.1644110
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.2100010
Team8.0844220
TOR

TOR

65-47

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33112000
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000010
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-44031000
SPRINT25.716
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000000
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT29.597
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-00100000
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-22100000
A. SanchezA. SanchezC
1-22010000
Team8-3030484022
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
6.0511051
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2111000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.1000000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.0622071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    94 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      32%·88.2 mph·24% whiff
    • FF
      26%·91.9 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      13%·80.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      45%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      22%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.5 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    84 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.0 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·75.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      28%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.6 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Little
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • KC
      42%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      42%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·92.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      45%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

2

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Aug 1KCKC9@TORTOR3
Aug 2KCKC2@TORTOR4today
Aug 3KCKC7@TORTOR4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 1KCKC9@TORTOR3
Aug 2KCKC2@TORTOR4today
Aug 3KCKC7@TORTOR4
Sep 19TORTOR1@KCKC20
Sep 20TORTOR1@KCKC2
Sep 21TORTOR8@KCKC5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

KCKC
J. India

J. India

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat KC 4-2.

Win probability

TOR vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 68% WP

Straw · reached on bunt single to third.

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 85% WP

Schneider · singled to right, Straw scored on error and Heineman scored on error, Schneider safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Rave.

KCTop 7th Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 20% WP

Frazier · doubled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000011002
TOR00300010—4

Period scoring

KC won 1 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Schneider 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Perez 1

1
1

Inn 7

Isbel 1

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
TOR

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  2. T9

    Frazier struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  10. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  11. T9

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  12. T9

    Yastrzemski grounded out to second.

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  20. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  21. T9

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  22. T9

    Perez struck out looking.

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

    +3pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  27. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Salvador Perez

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  28. T9

    Hoffman relieved Domínguez

    ·

    KC 2·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 2·TOR 4

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 2·TOR 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

12

TB

8

1

HR

0

0

BB

2

7

K

2

12

LOB

15

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 98
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    183
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    171
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.