MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

WSH

60-84

MIA

66-79

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

8,634 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Zack LittellWSH
2.7± 3.4low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.3± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

MIA

.740

OPS

◀

.715

.707

.322

OBP

.319

.324

5.33

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.73

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.11

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 7 · MIA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	3	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	7
MIA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. AbramsSS	.268	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. WoodRF	.260	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.232	4	1	1	4	1	0	0
D. LileLF	.282	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.260	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.245	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
D. CrewsRF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. YoungCF	.231	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. AlfaroC	.333	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		36	7	10	7	2	4	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.268

.260

.232

.282

.260

.204

.245

.205

.231

.333

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. ParkerRP	7.2	4	2	2	2	2	96
P. PoulinRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	10
C. HenryRP	0.2	2	3	2	0	1	18
J. FerrerRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	8	5	4	2	4	137

Player

7.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

137

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.279	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
A. RamirezC	.226	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.319	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.278	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
M. AcostaSS	.225	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.254	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.273	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	1	2	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. MazurSP	4.1	8	6	4	3	1	96
S. MartinezRP	1.2	0	1	1	1	1	26
V. BellozoRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	35
J. SimpsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	10	7	5	4	4	170

Team

WSH

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.