MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9MIN

MIN

64-80

123

LAA

67-77

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

28,824 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.1%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low

Hits

Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
Jo AdellLAA
1.0± 1.3high
Trey ManciniLAA
1.0± 2.3low

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 2.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.0± 2.4high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

LAA

.708

OPS

.715

.704

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.46

4.82

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.65

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 12 · LAA 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	2	1	0	2	2	0	2	3	12
LAA	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. MartinRF	.290	5	3	2	0	0	1	2
M. WallnerRF	.206	4	1	1	2	0	1	2
L. Keaschall2B	.329	6	1	3	2	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.255	4	2	1	1	0	1	2
R. Lewis3B	.240	5	2	3	5	2	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.210	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. LeeSS	.241	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. GasperC	.163	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.169	5	2	2	1	1	0	3
Team		41	12	13	11	3	6	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.290

.206

.329

.255

.240

.210

.241

.163

.169

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. Woods RichardsonSP	5.0	5	3	3	1	6	89
T. AdamsRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	4	38
M. TonkinRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20
G. CabreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	23
Team	9.0	5	3	3	5	13	170

Player

S. Woods RichardsonSP

5.0

T. AdamsRP

1.2

M. TonkinRP

1.1

G. CabreraRP

1.0

Team

9.0

170

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. TroutCF	.230	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
Y. Moncada3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. NetoSS	.257	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Rengifo3B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.204	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. LugoLF	.215	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. RiveroC	.333	3	1	1	2	0	1	2
B. TeodosioLF	.196	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Kingery3B	.148	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	5	3	0	5	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. DanaSP	4.2	5	5	5	5	9	99
J. FerminRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
R. StephensonRP	0.2	1	2	1	1	0	24
S. PeraltaRP	3.1	7	5	4	0	4	51
Team	9.0	13	12	10	6	13	179

Team

MIN

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.