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  • MLBTop 6
    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +41.5pphigh
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    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +25.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
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    SF 2@COL 8
    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+6SF
ARI

ARI

72-73

5
11
SF

SF

73-71

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
26,699 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

ARI 5 · SF 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0310000105
SF0220051111

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    175
    11(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 94
    257
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 94
    1810
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    189
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    1210
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI72-73
5
11
SF73-71
ARI72-73·SF73-71
ARI

ARI

72-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-55000002
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
3-55130001
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44000001
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-33221110
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-44000003
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.175
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33100010
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.941
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44013001
SPRINT29.698
Team8-36365851210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CrismattN. Crismatt★SP
4.0644132
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0232110
A. DeSclafaniA. DeSclafaniRP
3.0444023
Team8.0121110265
SF

SF

73-71

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-55112102
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44100011
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44020001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44112101
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44221100
SPRINT28.175
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22100000
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
3-44232100
SPRINT27.148
C. KossC. Koss★2B
2-44122000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33112100
SPRINT24.32
L. MatosL. MatosRF
0-11100011
Team12-3535111211526
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
6.0541270
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0100010
T. BeckT. BeckRP
2.0211021
Team9.08522101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • J. Lucchesi
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

5

Runs

11

1

Errors

2

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 13ARIARI2@SFSF1
May 14ARIARI6@SFSF10
May 14ARIARI8@SFSF7
Sep 9ARIARI5@SFSF11today
Sep 10ARIARI3@SFSF5
Sep 10ARIARI5@SFSF3

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 13ARIARI2@SFSF1
May 14ARIARI6@SFSF10
May 14ARIARI8@SFSF7
Jul 1SFSF2@ARIARI4
Jul 2SFSF2@ARIARI8
Jul 3SFSF6@ARIARI5
Jul 4SFSF7@ARIARI2
Sep 9ARIARI5@SFSF11today
Sep 10ARIARI3@SFSF5
Sep 10ARIARI5@SFSF3
Sep 16SFSF1@ARIARI8
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI6
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 2nd Inning

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

N. Crismatt

N. Crismatt

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat ARI 11-5. McCarthy's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

SF vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+30pp→ 75% WP

McCarthy · tripled to right, Moreno scored, Thomas scored and Vargas scored.

SFBottom 2nd Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 46% WP

Lee · homered to right (364 feet), Gilbert scored.

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 4-4
+22pp→ 59% WP

Smith · homered to right (414 feet), Devers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0310000105
SF02200511—11

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · SF won 3

0
0

Inn 1

3
2

Inn 2

McCarthy 3

Lee 2

1
2

Inn 3

Alexander 1

Smith 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
5

Inn 6

Koss 2

0
1

Inn 7

Chapman 1

1
1

Inn 8

Moreno 1

Bailey 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
SF

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  2. T9

    Marte grounded out to second.

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  5. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  6. T9

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  7. T9

    Perdomo flied out to left.

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  10. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  11. T9

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  12. T9

    McCarthy struck out looking.

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  20. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Jake McCarthy

    · ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  21. T9

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  22. T9

    Vargas reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  25. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 5·SF 11

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 5·SF 11

  28. B8

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  29. B8

    Devers lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 5·SF 11

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

5

Runs

11

8

Hits

12

1

Errors

2

13

TB

29

1

HR

5

2

BB

2

10

K

6

17

LOB

8

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175