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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATH
CIN

CIN

74-74

5
11
ATH

ATH

69-80

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,758 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

CIN 5 · ATH 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0203000005
ATH0320001511

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    295
    26(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    156
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    1811
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 92
    174
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 92
    1810
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 92
    305
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Cincinnati Reds, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN74-74
5
11
ATH69-80
CIN74-74·ATH69-80
CIN

CIN

74-74

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-55000001
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-55010000
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000011
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-33100010
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
3-44130000
SPRINT26.530
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
2-44223101
SPRINT26.735
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-22112110
SPRINT2872
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000010
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
0-11000000
Team8-3434585243
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. GreeneH. Greene★SP
2.1455432
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.1000110
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
2.2211130
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0433010
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.2222101
Team8.0121111783
ATH

ATH

69-80

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-44221011
SPRINT26.530
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-22310021
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-55114102
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-33121120
SPRINT27.148
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-55022000
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-55000003
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-33220010
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT25.716
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-22000011
Team12-3333111210378
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
5.0655222
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0100110
BB. BassoRP
1.0000000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0100000
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000100
Team9.0855432

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • S. Barlow
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • ST
      46%·80.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      31%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.2 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • B. Basso
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      57%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      14%·77.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

5

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Sep 13CINCIN0@ATHATH3
Sep 14CINCIN5@ATHATH11today
Sep 14CINCIN4@ATHATH7

Season series

ATH leads series 2-0

Sep 13CINCIN0@ATHATH3
Sep 14CINCIN5@ATHATH11today
Sep 14CINCIN4@ATHATH7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 4th Inning

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat CIN 11-5. Stephenson's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

ATH vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 77% WP

Benson · homered to center (423 feet), Stephenson scored.

ATHBottom 2nd Inning · 2-3
+22pp→ 52% WP

Cortes · homered to right (398 feet), Hernaiz scored.

CINTop 4th Inning · 5-5
+30pp→ 57% WP

Stephenson · homered to right center (390 feet), Lux scored and Stewart scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0203000005
ATH03200015—11

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · ATH won 4

0
0

Inn 1

2
3

Inn 2

Benson 2

Cortes 2

0
2

Inn 3

Rooker 1

3
0

Inn 4

Stephenson 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Wilson 1

0
5

Inn 8

Kurtz 4

0

Inn 9

CIN
ATH

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  2. T9

    Marte flied out to left.

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  5. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Noelvi Marte

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  6. T9

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  7. T9

    Friedl grounded out to second, Hayes to third.

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  10. T9

    Hayes to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  11. T9

    Hayes to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  13. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  14. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  15. T9

    Hayes walked.

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  22. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  23. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  24. T9

    Espinal popped out to second.

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  28. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Santiago Espinal

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  29. T9

    H. Harris relieved Alvarado

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

  30. T9

    Espinal hit for Benson

    ·

    CIN 5·ATH 11

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

5

Runs

11

8

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

14

TB

24

2

HR

3

4

BB

7

3

K

8

10

LOB

17

Player projections

ATH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    4.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872