MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHW

CHW

50-88

MIN

62-75

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

15,892 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.1%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.4high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 1.4high
Tristan PetersCHW
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 2.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Tristan GrayMIN
0.7± 1.6high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.8± 2.4low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

MIN

.742

OPS

◀

.715

.708

.329

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.79

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.54

4.25

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.82

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 6 · MIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6
MIN	0	1	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. TauchmanRF	.275	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.266	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TeelC	.289	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. QueroC	.281	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.229	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. Mead1B	.286	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Meidroth2B	.253	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. BaldwinLF	.238	4	2	2	1	0	0	1
T. Elko1B	.136	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TaylorRF	.204	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	12	6	2	3	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.275

.266

.289

.281

.229

.286

.238

.253

.238

.136

.204

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. EllardRP	1.2	0	1	0	3	2	35
W. GonzálezRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	26
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	3	21
B. EisertRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	22
S. WilsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. AlexanderRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	20
J. LeasureRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	8	5	3	5	9	149

Player

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.2

1.1

Team

9.0

149

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. BuxtonCF	.272	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
R. JeffersC	.258	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
M. WallnerRF	.210	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.310	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.252	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.244	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.230	4	2	1	1	1	0	0
E. Julien2B	.197	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.179	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. MartinRF	.268	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.110	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	8	4	1	5	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. OberSP	5.0	6	4	4	2	3	69
G. CabreraRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	20
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	31
J. TopaRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	17
T. AdamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	5	143

Team

CHW

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.