MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10BAL

BAL

61-75

111

67-69

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

37,711 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.3± 2.0low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

.727

OPS

.715

.728

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.53

Team ERA

4.17

4.55

1.40

WHIP

1.31

1.41

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 11 · SF 1 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	4	3	0	0	1	3	0	11
SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.245	3	1	1	1	0	2	0
J. Jackson2B	.330	5	2	2	4	1	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.278	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.260	5	2	2	2	1	0	2
C. CowserRF	.215	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. BeaversRF	.317	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.184	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. BasalloC	.205	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
D. JohnsonCF	.222	3	3	2	0	0	1	0
L. VazquezSS	.135	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	11	13	10	3	4	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.245

.330

.278

.260

.215

.317

.184

.205

.222

.135

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. RogersSP	7.0	5	1	1	0	5	92
S. DubinRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	26
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	7	118

Player

T. RogersSP

7.0

S. DubinRP

2.0

Team

9.0

118

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. AdamesSS	.230	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
M. Chapman3B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Flores1B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SchmittDH	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MatosRF	.224	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.212	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.135	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	1	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SeymourRP	3.0	5	4	4	2	2	60
T. BeckRP	3.2	5	4	4	1	6	63
M. GageRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	33
J. PegueroRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
C. Koss2B	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	13	11	11	4	10	172

Team

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.