MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

STL

64-65

61-67

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

9,182 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.1± 2.8low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.7low
Shane McClanahanTB
5.0± 1.8low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.7± 2.8high
Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Yandy DiazTB
0.9± 1.5high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low
Andre PallanteSTL
2.6± 2.5low
Dustin MaySTL
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 7 · TB 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	5	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	7
TB	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
L. Nootbaar★LF	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	2	1
I. Herrera★DH	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	2-5	5	0	2	2	0	0	2
SPRINT25.513
W. Contreras★1B	2-5	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT26.838
M. Winn★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman★3B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. Saggese★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
P. Pages★C	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. Church★LF	0-4	4	2	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586

Team	10-35	35	7	10	6	1	4	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-3

1-4

2-5

2-5

1-4

2-4

0-2

0-4

0-4

Team

10-35

	Pitching
S. Gray★SP	5.0	6	3	3	1	6	1
K. LeahySP	1.0	3	1	1	2	0	0
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0
J. RomeroRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	0
Team	9.0	10	4	4	5	10	1

Pitching

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
C. Simpson★LF	2-4	4	3	2	0	0	1	1
SPRINT29.496
Y. Diaz★DH	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
SPRINT25.716
B. Lowe★2B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
J. Caminero★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Lowe★LF	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
E. Pereira★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
B. Seymour★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Fortes★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. Gray★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MangumLF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2993
H. FeducciaC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	10-36	36	4	10	4	1	5	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI