• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 1
  • WNBA2:37 - 2nd
    SEA 29@TOR 33
    +8.2pphigh
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5TB
STL

STL

64-67

2
7
TB

TB

63-67

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,809 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

STL 2 · TB 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000001012
TB000142007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 98
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 97
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 97
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    238
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off St. Louis Cardinals, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL64-67
2
7
TB63-67
STL64-67·TB63-67
STL

STL

64-67

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-33000010
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000000
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44210000
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-33000012
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33011010
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000003
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.891
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-22000002
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-22000001
Team5-3232252038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
4.1344351
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
0.2111111
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
2.0422120
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0000010
Team8.0877592
TB

TB

63-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-33122010
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44114100
SPRINT25.716
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000000
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-33000012
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
3-44131101
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-44000003
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-33110012
SPRINT27.251
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-33210010
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-33100011
Team8-3131787259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
5.0100130
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000110
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2110120
BB. Van BelleRP
2.1311020
Team9.0521380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    73 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      27%·93.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.8 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    36 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      64%·82.7 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Svanson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      54%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      46%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      55%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    63 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Van Belle
    35 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      40%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      75%·98.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      43%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 21STLSTL7@TBTB4
Aug 22STLSTL6@TBTB10
Aug 24STLSTL2@TBTB7today

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 21STLSTL7@TBTB4
Aug 22STLSTL6@TBTB10
Aug 24STLSTL2@TBTB7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

TBTB
C. Morel

C. Morel

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat STL 7-2.

Win probability

TB vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Morel · homered to left center (399 feet).

TBBottom 5th Inning · 0-5
+15pp→ 96% WP

Caminero · homered to right (381 feet), J. Lowe scored, Williams scored and Simpson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000001012
TB00014200—7

Period scoring

STL won 1 · TB won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Morel 1

0
4

Inn 5

Caminero 4

0
2

Inn 6

Simpson 2

1
0

Inn 7

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Gorman 1

STL
TB

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  2. T9

    Pozo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  6. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  7. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  8. T9

    Walker reached on infield single to third, Gorman to third.

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  12. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  13. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  14. T9

    Saggese flied out to center.

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  17. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Thomas Saggese

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  18. T9

    ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  19. T9

    Gorman singled to center, Burleson scored.

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  23. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 2·TB 7

  24. T9

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  25. T9

    Contreras struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 1·TB 7

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

5

TB

17

0

HR

2

3

BB

5

8

K

9

11

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891

Player projections

TB vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.4%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.