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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

58-62

3
2
TEX

TEX

61-60

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
18,268 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0010001013
TEX0110000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Wyatt Langford

Wyatt Langford

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI58-62
3
2
TEX61-60
ARI58-62·TEX61-60
ARI

ARI

58-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44122110
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-55000002
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-33000011
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44010001
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
2-44020002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33111102
SPRINT28.175
J. HerreraJ. Herrera★C
1-44110001
Team8-35353832211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. DeSclafaniA. DeSclafani★RP
3.0322230
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
3.1100120
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.2000110
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000000
Team9.0422460
TEX

TEX

61-60

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33001001
SPRINT28.175
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33110002
SPRINT25.716
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-22010020
SPRINT2872
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44001000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-33110010
SPRINT23.91
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11000001
Team4-3131242046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
5.0411231
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100030
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0211010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0000020
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0111021
Team9.08332112

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2today
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2today
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4
Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 9th Inning

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. DeSclafani

A. DeSclafani

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
W. Langford

W. Langford

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat TEX 3-2. Marte's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 44% WP

Alexander · homered to left center (411 feet).

ARITop 7th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 38% WP

Herrera · reached on infield single to pitcher, Herrera safe at second on throwing error by pitcher R. Garcia.

ARITop 9th Inning · 3-2
+42pp→ 80% WP

Marte · homered to left (445 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0010001013
TEX0110000002

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · TEX won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Garc 1

1
1

Inn 3

Alexander 1

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Marte 1

ARI
TEX

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  3. B9

    Higashioka grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  10. B9

    Juan Morillo pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  11. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  12. B9

    Jung grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

    −7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  17. B9

    Juan Morillo pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  18. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  19. B9

    A. García lined out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

    −9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  25. B9

    Juan Morillo pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  26. B9

    Morillo relieved Beeks

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  29. T9

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

  30. T9

    Carroll grounded out to second.

    ·

    ARI 3·TEX 2

    +1pp

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

3

Runs

2

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

2

16

TB

5

2

HR

0

2

BB

4

11

K

6

20

LOB

17

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 100
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    152
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    241
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs