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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAA
LAA

LAA

64-72

3
0
HOU

HOU

75-62

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
36,811 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 3 · HOU 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000100203
HOU0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Houston Astros and beat them, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA64-72
3
0
HOU75-62
LAA64-72·HOU75-62
LAA

LAA

64-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-55000002
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33100022
SPRINT26.735
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-55121000
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-11000030
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-33000001
M. LugoM. Lugo★LF
0-44000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
2-44121101
SPRINT28.278
Team6-3333362159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
7.0100380
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0100020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000000
Team9.02003100
HOU

HOU

75-62

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-33000011
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT27.251
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-22010010
SPRINT26.735
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
0-33000001
Team2-28280200310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
6.0311351
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.SP
2.0322230
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000010
Team9.0633591

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Soriano
    93 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      44%·97.3 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      34%·85.3 mph·64% whiff
    • FS
      11%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      73%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.0 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • H. Brown
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      34%·94.6 mph·7% whiff
    • KC
      28%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
  • L. McCullers Jr.
    51 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      57%·91.0 mph·36% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.1 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      16%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

2

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 4-3

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0today
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8

Season series

HOU leads series 5-4

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0today
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 5th Inning

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat HOU 3-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 5th Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 52% WP

Peraza · homered to right center (384 feet).

LAATop 8th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 88% WP

Trout · doubled to center, Moncada scored.

LAATop 8th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 95% WP

Rengifo · reached on infield single to pitcher, Trout scored, Ward safe at third on throwing error by pitcher McCullers Jr.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000100203
HOU0000000000

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Peraza 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Trout 1

0
0

Inn 9

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  2. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  3. B9

    Correa flied out to left.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  9. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  10. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  11. B9

    Altuve grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    −2pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  14. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  15. B9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  16. B9

    Alvarez flied out to left.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

    −2pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  21. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  22. B9

    Jansen relieved García

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  25. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  26. T9

    Trout grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·HOU 0

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

3

Runs

0

6

Hits

2

0

Errors

1

11

TB

3

1

HR

0

5

BB

3

9

K

10

14

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.8%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.0%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 30, 25sim 98
    30
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 97
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 97
    152
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs