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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CLE
CHW

CHW

57-91

0
4
CLE

CLE

76-71

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
21,779 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CHW 0 · CLE 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
CLE000110114

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Chicago White Sox, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Will Robertson

Will Robertson

LF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Nolan Jones

Nolan Jones

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW57-91
0
4
CLE76-71
CHW57-91·CLE76-71
CHW

CHW

57-91

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-44000001
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000003
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000002
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33000001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000002
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-22000001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT2744
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-22010000
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-11000000
Team2-29290200010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
6.2433231
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.1211001
Team8.0644232
CLE

CLE

76-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000010
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-33111111
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-33111100
SPRINT25.716
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000000
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT26.530
J. NoelJ. Noel★RF
1-22110000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-33011000
N. JonesN. JonesRF
1-11011000
Team6-2828464223
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
9.02000100
Team9.02000100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • M. Perez
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      42%·90.2 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      26%·82.9 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      43%·81.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    103 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.6 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      32%·87.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      15%·81.0 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      2%·82.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

6

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 6-0

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4today
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Season series

CLE leads series 9-2

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4today
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHWCHW
W. Robertson

W. Robertson

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
N. Jones

N. Jones

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

CLE beat CHW 4-0.

Win probability

CLE vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 39% WP

Ram · írez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Martínez out at second, Kwan to third.

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 73% WP

Fry · homered to left (377 feet).

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 85% WP

Hedges · singled to left, Noel scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
CLE00011011—4

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · CLE won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Fry 1

0
1

Inn 5

Hedges 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Jones 1

0
1

Inn 8

Mart 1

0

Inn 9

CHW
CLE

Play-by-play · 444 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Sosa lined out to right.

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

    +0.6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  5. T9

    Tanner Bibee pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  7. T9

    Teel struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

    +1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Tanner Bibee pitches to Kyle Teel

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  14. T9

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  15. T9

    Tauchman grounded out to shortstop, Robertson to second.

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  21. T9

    Tanner Bibee pitches to Mike Tauchman

    · ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  22. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  23. T9

    Robertson hit by pitch.

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

    −2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  25. T9

    Tanner Bibee pitches to Will Robertson

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  28. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  29. B8

    Ramírez fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·CLE 4

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

0

Runs

4

2

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

2

TB

13

0

HR

2

0

BB

2

10

K

3

6

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 10 players in cohort
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 13, 25sim 98
    41
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    42
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    234
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.