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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ATL
ATL

ATL

54-68

2
0
CLE

CLE

63-58

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
33,571 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 2 · CLE 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0001000012
CLE0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL54-68
2
0
CLE63-58
ATL54-68·CLE63-58
ATL

ATL

54-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44010001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-33020011
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33000011
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.614
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT27.148
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-33000012
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-22001011
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-33010000
Team8-3030282048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. WaldrepH. Waldrep★SP
6.0200270
D. HernandezD. HernandezRP
1.0000010
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0200290
CLE

CLE

63-58

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22000021
SPRINT25.411
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000002
SPRINT26.530
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000002
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33000001
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000001
Team2-2929020029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
5.0411450
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
2.0200010
C. HernandezC. HernandezRP
1.0211010
Team9.0822480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    95 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      33%·93.7 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      28%·87.1 mph·62% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hernandez
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      56%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.2 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.2 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      26%·77.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·78.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Junis
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      48%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      39%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Hernandez
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

2

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Aug 15ATLATL2@CLECLE0today
Aug 16ATLATL10@CLECLE1
Aug 17ATLATL5@CLECLE4

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Aug 15ATLATL2@CLECLE0today
Aug 16ATLATL10@CLECLE1
Aug 17ATLATL5@CLECLE4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 4th Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
S. Kwan

S. Kwan

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CLE 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 53% WP

Alvarez Jr. · walked, Albies scored, Murphy to second, Harris II to third.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 63% WP

Ram · írez struck out swinging.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 92% WP

Harris II · singled to left, White scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0001000012
CLE0000000000

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · CLE won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

II 1

ATL
CLE

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  3. B9

    Manzardo popped out to third.

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  13. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  14. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  15. B9

    Ramírez flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

    −3pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  19. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  20. B9

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  21. B9

    Schneemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  25. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  26. B9

    Iglesias relieved Kinley

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  27. B9

    White as designated hitter.

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 2·CLE 0

  30. T9

    ·

    ATL 2·CLE 0

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

0

8

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

9

TB

3

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

8

K

9

12

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+

Player projections

CLE vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    30
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs