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FINAL+4LAA
LAA

LAA

65-73

5
1
KC

KC

70-68

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
13,685 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 5 · KC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000022015
KC0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA65-73
5
1
KC70-68
LAA65-73·KC70-68
LAA

LAA

65-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT27.148
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000001
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
3-44132100
SPRINT27.867
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-44000002
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
2-33220011
M. LugoM. Lugo★LF
0-44000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT28.278
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33011000
SPRINT29.395
Team9-3434594118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FarrisM. Farris★RP
5.0311230
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0000100
SPRINT27.148
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000000
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000120
Team9.0411450
KC

KC

70-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000010
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-22001010
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000000
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-22010010
SPRINT26.735
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33000002
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
C. JensenC. JensenC
0-11000001
Team4-2828141045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
6.0422151
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0222010
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
2.0311020
Team9.0955181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • M. Farris
    70 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      44%·90.7 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      36%·77.8 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      20%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      86%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      39%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      22%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      71%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Lorenzen
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      26%·92.6 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.9 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.0 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • CU
      44%·82.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      32%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

Sep 2LAALAA5@KCKC1today
Sep 3LAALAA4@KCKC3
Sep 4LAALAA3@KCKC4

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

Sep 2LAALAA5@KCKC1today
Sep 3LAALAA4@KCKC3
Sep 4LAALAA3@KCKC4
Sep 24KCKC8@LAALAA4
Sep 25KCKC2@LAALAA3
Sep 26KCKC9@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 6th Inning

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Farris

M. Farris

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

KCKC
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat KC 5-1. Adell's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 6th Inning · 2-1
+31pp→ 54% WP

Adell · homered to left center (454 feet), Rengifo scored.

LAABottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 62% WP

Pasquantino · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.

LAATop 7th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 81% WP

Peraza · doubled to right, Taylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000022015
KC0010000001

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

1

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

15

TB

6

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

8

K

5

14

LOB

12

Win probability

KC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · KC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Adell 2

2
0

Inn 7

Peraza 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Teodosio 1

LAA
KC

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 5·KC 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  3. B9

    Jensen struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  9. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Carter Jensen

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  10. B9

    Jensen hit for Grichuk

    ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  12. B9

    Yastrzemski lined out to center.

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

    −1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  19. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  20. B9

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  21. B9

    Perez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  29. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

  30. B9

    ·

    LAA 5·KC 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    234
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs