• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2ARI
ARI

ARI

53-59

6
4
ATH

ATH

49-65

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,830 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · ATH 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0310001016
ATH0000201014

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Athletics and beat them, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

LF

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI53-59
6
4
ATH49-65
ARI53-59·ATH49-65
ARI

ARI

53-59

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44011011
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
2-55122102
SPRINT28.175
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
3-55030000
SPRINT26.838
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-55000001
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-44100012
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
2-33220011
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
3-44131001
SPRINT27.867
C. KaiserC. Kaiser★SS
0-33001010
J. HerreraJ. Herrera★C
1-33111000
Team12-36366126148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
5.0622350
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0000000
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0111000
K. GravemanK. GravemanRP
1.0000120
K. NelsonK. NelsonRP
1.0111011
Team9.0844481
ATH

ATH

49-65

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-44001002
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000011
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
0-22000012
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
1-33010001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-44000000
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
4-44341100
SPRINT27.457
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-00000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000001
G. UrshelaG. Urshela3B
1-33110010
Team8-3232484148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. PerkinsJ. Perkins★RP
3.0544340
B. BowdenB. BowdenRP
1.0000000
O. BidoO. BidoRP
2.0200000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0211001
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.0000020
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0311120
Team9.01266481

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    92 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      49%·92.4 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Graveman
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      26%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Saalfrank
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      67%·78.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      20%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nelson
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      75%·83.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      25%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.0 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • J. Perkins
    62 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.2 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Bido
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      34%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      71%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      33%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      17%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bowden
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      78%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·90.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

6

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 2ARIARI1@ATHATH5
Aug 3ARIARI7@ATHATH2
Aug 3ARIARI6@ATHATH4today

Season series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 2ARIARI1@ATHATH5
Aug 3ARIARI7@ATHATH2
Aug 3ARIARI6@ATHATH4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

ATHATH
J. Bleday

J. Bleday

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Perkins

J. Perkins

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat ATH 6-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+13pp→ 81% WP

Gurriel Jr. · popped out to shortstop.

ATHBottom 5th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 27% WP

Kurtz · singled to right, Bleday scored and Urshela scored.

ARIBottom 6th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 83% WP

Wynns · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Thomas out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0310001016
ATH0000201014

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Kaiser 1

1
0

Inn 3

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Kurtz 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Alexander 1

Schuemann 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Alexander 1

Bleday 1

ARI
ATH

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  3. B9

    Schuemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  9. B9

    Kyle Nelson pitches to Max Schuemann

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  10. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  11. B9

    Urshela flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  14. B9

    Kyle Nelson pitches to Gio Urshela

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  15. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  16. B9

    Bleday homered to right (394 feet).

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

    +3pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  19. B9

    Kyle Nelson pitches to JJ Bleday

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 4

  20. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  21. B9

    Hernaiz fouled out to first.

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  25. B9

    Kyle Nelson pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  26. B9

    K. Nelson relieved Graveman

    ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

  30. T9

    McCarthy struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 6·ATH 3

    +0.9pp

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

6

Runs

4

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

16

TB

13

1

HR

1

4

BB

4

8

K

8

14

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ATH vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 96
    112
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    236
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 96
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    45
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs