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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SF
SF

SF

57-57

8
1
PIT

PIT

49-65

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
18,421 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 8 · PIT 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0021320008
PIT0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 4, 25sim 98
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 98
    242
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    236
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo

3B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF57-57
8
1
PIT49-65
SF57-57·PIT49-65
SF

SF

57-57

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-33120020
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44111012
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-55122101
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-55010000
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-55110001
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-55111101
SPRINT26.735
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44110001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33112010
SPRINT24.32
C. KossC. Koss★2B
1-44112102
Team11-38388118348
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
6.07110100
M. GageM. GageRP
2.0000120
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0000010
Team9.07111130
PIT

PIT

49-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-44010002
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-44021002
SPRINT27.969
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000002
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-44010002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000002
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-22010011
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33110001
SPRINT27.560
Team7-33331710113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
4.2566333
B. AshcraftB. AshcraftSP
2.1522030
C. SandersC. SandersRP
2.0100120
Team9.01188483

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Webb
    110 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      28%·87.0 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Gage
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Beck
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      38%·82.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      25%·92.0 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Burrows
    80 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Ashcraft
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      36%·91.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      25%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sanders
    31 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      6%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 4SFSF4@PITPIT5
Aug 5SFSF8@PITPIT1today
Aug 6SFSF4@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 4-1

Jul 29PITPIT6@SFSF5
Jul 30PITPIT3@SFSF1
Jul 30PITPIT2@SFSF1
Aug 4SFSF4@PITPIT5
Aug 5SFSF8@PITPIT1today
Aug 6SFSF4@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 3rd Inning

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 7 H

PITPIT
J. Triolo

J. Triolo

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat PIT 8-1. Koss's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 79% WP

Koss · homered to left center (419 feet), Bailey scored.

PITBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 48% WP

Reynolds · singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Pham to second, Horwitz to third.

SFTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 78% WP

Encarnaci · ón homered to center (415 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0021320008
PIT0010000001

Period scoring

SF won 4 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
1

Inn 3

Koss 2

Reynolds 1

1
0

Inn 4

Encarnaci 1

3
0

Inn 5

Adames 2

2
0

Inn 6

Bailey 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SF
PIT

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 8·PIT 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  3. B9

    Davis flied out to right.

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  5. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Henry Davis

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  6. B9

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  7. B9

    Suwinski struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  12. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Jack Suwinski

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  13. B9

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  14. B9

    N. Gonzales flied out to center.

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  18. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Nick Gonzales

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  19. B9

    Beck relieved Gage

    ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 8·PIT 1

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 8·PIT 1

  22. T9

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  23. T9

    Encarnación lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  27. T9

    Cam Sanders pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  29. T9

    Smith lined out to right.

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 8·PIT 1

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

8

Runs

1

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

21

TB

9

3

HR

0

4

BB

1

8

K

13

15

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PIT vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.