HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -8.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    +1.8pphigh
  • MLBMid 5
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +56.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:14 - 2nd
    GS 34@SEA 35
    +10.8pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

70-59

1
0
NYY

NYY

69-59

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
46,064 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

BOS

league avg

NYY

NYY

.696

OPS

.715

▶

.763

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.331

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.10

3.89

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.36

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 1 · NYY 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
NYY0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into New York Yankees and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. BelloBOS+29.8pp
  2. 2N. LoweBOS+26.2pp
  3. 3T. GrishamNYY−19.9pp

BOS · top performer

BOS
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Gonzalez1B
.2883000011
A. Bregman3B
.3094030000
R. AnthonyLF
.2804000003
T. StorySS
.2574000001
J. GarciaRF
.0003000013
J. DuranLF
.2593000011
C. RafaelaCF
.2484000000
N. EatonOF
.2411000010
C. WongC
.1894021000
- M. YoshidaDH
.2331000000
- D. HamiltonSS
.1780000000
- N. LoweDH
.3002110000
Team33161049

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. BelloSP
7.03001592
G. WhitlockRP
1.00000214
A. ChapmanRP
1.00000210
Team9.030019116

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.2454010002
B. Rice1B
.2434010001
A. JudgeRF
.3273000001
C. BellingerLF
.2703000000
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2373000001
J. DominguezLF
.2562000010
A. VolpeSS
.2093000001
R. McMahon3B
.2192000001
A. WellsC
.2112010001
- G. StantonDH
.3011000001
- J. CaballeroSS
.3480000000
- P. Goldschmidt1B
.2811000000
Team28030019

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. FriedSP
6.04003799
M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.02110014
D. WilliamsRP
1.00000214
D. BednarRP
1.00001023
Team9.061149150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      29%·95.8 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.5 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      71%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • FF
      40%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      10%·87.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·100.1 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    99 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      26%·95.7 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.8 mph·86% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      12%·93.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      43%·77.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      26%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      57%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      29%·73.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      7%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      50%·83.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 5-2

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0today
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7

Season series

BOS leads series 7-1

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0today
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Wells

A. Wells

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat NYY 1-0. Wong's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 45% WP

Grisham · lined into double play, shortstop to first, Wells doubled off first.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+19pp→ 68% WP

Wong · doubled to left, Lowe scored.

BOSBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 94% WP

Grisham · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
NYY0000000000

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · NYY won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Wong 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
NYY

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  3. B9

    Rice struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  8. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  9. B9

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  10. B9

    Grisham struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

    −8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  14. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Trent Grisham

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  15. B9

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  16. B9

    Goldschmidt grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

    −4pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  20. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  21. B9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  22. B9

    Goldschmidt hit for Wells

    ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  23. B9

    Hamilton at second base.

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  26. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  27. T9

    Yoshida grounded out to third.

    · ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  29. T9

    Wong stole second.

    · ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

  30. T9

    Wong stole second.

    · ·

    BOS 1·NYY 0

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

0

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

8

TB

3

0

HR

0

4

BB

1

9

K

9

18

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.7± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.1± 2.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 3.9low

Hits

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Trent GrishamNYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jake BennettBOS
    3.0± 2.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    2.1± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.3%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.