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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12TOR
TEX

TEX

61-63

2
14
TOR

TOR

73-51

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,686 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TEX 2 · TOR 14 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0010000012
TOR0620303014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    1310
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 94
    79
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 94
    75
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 93
    712
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Texas Rangers, 14–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Evan Carter

Evan Carter

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX61-63
2
14
TOR73-51
TEX61-63·TOR73-51
TEX

TEX

61-63

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-55110003
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33000000
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
3-44032010
SPRINT2744
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010011
SPRINT25.920
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-22000011
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44010000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-44000001
E. CarterE. CarterCF
1-11010000
SPRINT28.175
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-22000001
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000000
Team7-3535272048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
2.1877221
J. GrayJ. GrayRP
2.1444332
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.1100000
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
2.0533001
Team8.0181414554
TOR

TOR

73-51

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44110002
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
3-44234111
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000011
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-55122001
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44100010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
3-33332110
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-55121000
SPRINT27.354
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
4-55345200
SPRINT29.597
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-22110010
T. FranceT. France1B
1-11010000
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-11000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
1-22110000
Team18-3939141814455
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
5.0411340
T. NanceT. NanceRP
2.0200040
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000100
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
1.0111000
SPRINT25.513
Team9.0722480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • P. Corbin
    62 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      44%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.9 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      26%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      3%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Gray
    54 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.8 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      43%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Tellez
    23 pitches·4% CSW
    • EP
      96%·56.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      4%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      53%·85.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    102 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      52%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      22%·85.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      14%·74.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      7%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      43%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      25%·85.6 mph·60% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Heineman
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • EP
      90%·49.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      10%·67.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

18

2

Runs

14

0

Errors

1

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 15TEXTEX5@TORTOR6
Aug 16TEXTEX2@TORTOR14today
Aug 17TEXTEX10@TORTOR4

Season series

TOR leads series 4-1

May 26TORTOR2@TEXTEX1
May 28TORTOR0@TEXTEX2
May 29TORTOR2@TEXTEX0
Aug 15TEXTEX5@TORTOR6
Aug 16TEXTEX2@TORTOR14today
Aug 17TEXTEX10@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

TEXTEX
E. Carter

E. Carter

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Gray

J. Gray

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TOR beat TEX 14-2.

Win probability

TOR vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-4
+12pp→ 91% WP

Straw · homered to left center (376 feet), Varsho scored and Clement scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0010000012
TOR06203030—14

Period scoring

TEX won 0 · TOR won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
6

Inn 2

Straw 3

1
2

Inn 3

Burger 1

Straw 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Varsho 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Schneider 3

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Burger 1

TEX
TOR

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  2. T9

    Jung grounded into fielder's choice to third, Burger out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  5. T9

    Tyler Heineman pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  6. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  7. T9

    Burger singled to center, Langford scored.

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  9. T9

    Tyler Heineman pitches to Jake Burger

    · ·

    TEX 2·TOR 14

  10. T9

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  11. T9

    Pederson grounded out to pitcher, Langford to second.

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  14. T9

    Tyler Heineman pitches to Joc Pederson

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  15. T9

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  16. T9

    Langford grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carter out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  19. T9

    Tyler Heineman pitches to Wyatt Langford

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  20. T9

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  21. T9

    Carter hit by pitch.

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  25. T9

    Tyler Heineman pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  26. T9

    Heineman relieved Domínguez

    ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  29. B8

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

  30. B8

    Lukes flied out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 1·TOR 14

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

14

7

Hits

18

0

Errors

1

9

TB

33

0

HR

4

4

BB

5

8

K

5

23

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Josh JungTEX
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    2.2± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    60.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.