• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6TEX
TEX

TEX

62-63

10
4
TOR

TOR

73-52

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,549 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 10 · TOR 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX02031200210
TOR0100010204

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 97
    213
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    132
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    266
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    76
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 17·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX62-63
10
4
TOR73-52
TEX62-63·TOR73-52
TEX

TEX

62-63

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44110011
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-44122100
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-55221101
SPRINT24.96
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-22110010
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-55112101
SPRINT28.175
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
3-44232110
SPRINT28.175
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-33111000
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-55110000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
3-44032000
SPRINT25.18
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-11000000
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11000000
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11000010
Team15-3939101510443
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
7.0522062
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.1222011
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.1000210
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1000010
Team9.0744293
TOR

TOR

73-52

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44112100
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-33000001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44121102
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-33020010
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000013
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-44111100
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44000000
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22000001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
1-22110001
SPRINT29.597
Team7-3434474329
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
4.11066022
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000200
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0222011
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0100000
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000100
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0222101
Team9.0151010434

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • N. Eovaldi
    97 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      30%·90.0 mph·5% whiff
    • FS
      28%·87.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      69%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      29%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      21%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      21%·78.3 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.8 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      21%·82.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      50%·81.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    20 pitches·5% CSW
    • FF
      60%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      35%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      61%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      39%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      12%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      85%·92.9 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      15%·87.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

7

10

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 15TEXTEX5@TORTOR6
Aug 16TEXTEX2@TORTOR14
Aug 17TEXTEX10@TORTOR4today

Season series

TOR wins series 4-2

May 26TORTOR2@TEXTEX1
May 28TORTOR0@TEXTEX2
May 29TORTOR2@TEXTEX0
Aug 15TEXTEX5@TORTOR6
Aug 16TEXTEX2@TORTOR14
Aug 17TEXTEX10@TORTOR4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

TEXTEX
M. Semien

M. Semien

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 10 H

How it ended

TEX beat TOR 10-4. Semien's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 69% WP

Semien · homered to left (367 feet), Tellez scored.

TORBottom 2nd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 41% WP

Kirk · homered to left center (414 feet).

TEXTop 4th Inning · 5-1
+14pp→ 87% WP

Heim · singled to center, Burger scored and Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX02031200210
TOR0100010204

Period scoring

TEX won 5 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
1

Inn 2

Semien 2

Kirk 1

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Heim 2

1
0

Inn 5

Seager 1

2
1

Inn 6

Langford 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Springer 2

2
0

Inn 9

Carter 2

TEX
TOR

Play-by-play · 620 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  3. B9

    Straw struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  8. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Myles Straw

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  9. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  10. B9

    Clement grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  14. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  15. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  16. B9

    Lukes grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  23. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  24. B9

    Pederson as designated hitter.

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  27. T9

    · ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  28. T9

    Freeman grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 10·TOR 4

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

10

Runs

4

15

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

30

TB

17

4

HR

3

4

BB

2

3

K

9

10

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Josh JungTEX
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    2.2± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    62.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.